Como
vs
Venezia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Como 2–0 Venezia
The model makes it 67% Como, 21% draw, 12% Venezia — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Como 2.32, Venezia 0.72.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Como are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Como are 8th on 11 points from 6 games; Venezia are bottom on 3 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Como have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to AS Roma.
- Venezia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Napoli.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2025, ended Como 1–1 Venezia.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Como vs Venezia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Como at 67% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Como vs Venezia
Como
- D0-0AS Roma11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Frosinone20 September 2026
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
Venezia
- W1-0Napoli17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atalanta12 October 2026
- L0-2Lazio19 September 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
What these results say
- Como conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Venezia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Venezia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Venezia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Como vs Venezia
Como and Venezia have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Como on 8 Mar 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Venezia | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 8 Mar 2025
Serie AComo 1–1 Venezia - 8 Dec 2024
Serie AVenezia 2–2 Como - 3 Mar 2024
Serie BComo 2–1 Venezia - 20 Aug 2023
Serie BVenezia 3–0 Como - 1 Apr 2023
Serie BVenezia 3–2 Como - 6 Nov 2022
Serie BComo 1–0 Venezia
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
A clear gap in the ratings
Como carry a model rating of 7.13 against 6.6 for Venezia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Como and 0.72 for Venezia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Como rate 1.25 in attack and 0.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Venezia rate 0.81 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Como a 2.7% chance of the title and Venezia 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Como the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Como against 0.72 for Venezia. Como's attack/defence rating is 1.25/0.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.33 for Venezia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Como at home · Venezia away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ComoVenezia
Como are 6th after 6 Serie A matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Venezia are 20th after 7 (between 18th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Como 6, Venezia 7.
Como score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Venezia have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Como
- at Lens4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 39%
Venezia
- vs Udinese6 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Juventus23 Nov · Serie Awin 11%
- vs Bologna29 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.