Deportivo Cali
vs
Junior
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Junior
The model makes it 45% Deportivo Cali, 30% draw, 25% Junior — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.52, Junior 0.87.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Deportivo Cali are 2nd on 24 points from 12 games; Junior are 17th on 9 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Cali are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Alianza Valledupar.
- Junior have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Bucaramanga.
- Last 6 meetings: Junior 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Junior 1–2 Deportivo Cali.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Cali vs Junior
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 45% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Junior
Deportivo Cali
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
- W3-0Cucuta19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Once Caldas13 September 2026
Junior
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
- W4-1away to Fortaleza FC20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alianza Valledupar13 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Cali won every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Junior scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 24 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Junior
- 4 April 2026Junior 1–2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 13 July 2025Deportivo Cali 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
- 26 January 2025Junior 0–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 15 November 2024Junior 3–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Deportivo Cali 0–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 3 December 2023Deportivo Cali 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Junior
Deportivo Cali
- S. Rodríguez10 goals3 assists
- E. Bello8 goals3 assists
Junior
- L. Muriel16 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Cali carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.56 for Junior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.87 for Junior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Cali rate 0.71 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Junior rate 0.81 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Cali a 4.8% chance of the title and Junior 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Deportivo Cali against 0.87 for Junior. Deportivo Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.47 for Junior.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Cali at home · Junior away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Cali 31, Junior 35.
Deportivo Cali score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Junior have let in 7 there.
Junior score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Deportivo Cali have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Cali
- at Llaneros21 Oct · Primera Awin 36%
- at Fortaleza FC25 Oct · Primera Awin 38%
- vs Chico2 Nov · Primera Awin 55%
- at America de Cali8 Nov · Primera Awin 26%
Junior
- vs Águilas Doradas24 Oct · Primera Awin 48%
- at Chico28 Oct · Primera Awin 40%
- at Llaneros31 Oct · Primera Awin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.