Bucaramanga
vs
America de Cali
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Bucaramanga 1–0 America de Cali
The model makes it 37% Bucaramanga, 32% draw, 31% America de Cali — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.17, America de Cali 0.95.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Bucaramanga are 5th on 20 points from 10 games; America de Cali are top on 24 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Once Caldas.
- America de Cali have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Last 6 meetings: America de Cali 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended America de Cali 2–0 Bucaramanga.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
Bucaramanga
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Pereira13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Cali31 August 2026
America de Cali
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
- W3-0Alianza Valledupar3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 20 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
- 2 April 2026America de Cali 2–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 6 March 2026America de Cali 2–1 BucaramangaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 16 September 2025America de Cali 0–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 3 September 2025America de Cali 2–0 BucaramangaCopa Colombia
- 27 August 2025Bucaramanga 1–0 America de CaliCopa Colombia
- 3 February 2025Bucaramanga 0–4 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and America de Cali
Bucaramanga
- L. Pons11 goals4 assists
- E. Batalla10 goals5 assists
America de Cali
- Y. Guzmán18 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bucaramanga carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.72 for America de Cali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Bucaramanga and 0.95 for America de Cali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucaramanga rate 0.78 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; America de Cali rate 0.78 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour America de Cali, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bucaramanga a 12.6% chance of the title and America de Cali 28.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bucaramanga against 0.95 for America de Cali. Bucaramanga's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.03 for America de Cali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bucaramanga at home · America de Cali away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Bucaramanga 29, America de Cali 32.
Bucaramanga score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); America de Cali have let in 5 there.
America de Cali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Bucaramanga have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bucaramanga
- at Chico23 Oct · Primera Awin 42%
- at Santa Fe27 Oct · Primera Awin 29%
- vs Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · Primera Awin 53%
America de Cali
- vs Cucuta24 Oct · Primera Awin 58%
- vs Fortaleza FC29 Oct · Primera Awin 55%
- at Millonarios4 Nov · Primera Awin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.