Águilas Doradas
vs
Deportes Tolima
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Águilas Doradas 0–1 Deportes Tolima
The model makes it 34% Águilas Doradas, 31% draw, 35% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Águilas Doradas 1.13, Deportes Tolima 1.13.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Águilas Doradas are 13th on 11 points from 10 games; Deportes Tolima are 8th on 18 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- Águilas Doradas have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Deportivo Cali.
- Deportes Tolima are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Fortaleza FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportes Tolima 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 April 2026, ended Deportes Tolima 4–1 Águilas Doradas.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 35% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
- D2-2Deportivo Pereira18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Nacional13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Internacional de Bogota6 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Once Caldas16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Fe12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros7 September 2026
What these results say
- Águilas Doradas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportes Tolima conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportes Tolima failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Águilas Doradas | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
- 1 April 2026Deportes Tolima 4–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 14 November 2025Águilas Doradas 1–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 25 May 2025Deportes Tolima 1–2 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 2 November 2024Águilas Doradas 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 12 April 2024Deportes Tolima 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 2 December 2023Deportes Tolima 0–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto11 goals
Deportes Tolima
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Águilas Doradas carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.58 for Deportes Tolima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Águilas Doradas and 1.13 for Deportes Tolima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Águilas Doradas rate 0.64 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Tolima rate 0.70 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Águilas Doradas a 0% chance of the title and Deportes Tolima 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportes Tolima the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Águilas Doradas against 1.13 for Deportes Tolima. Águilas Doradas's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.21 for Deportes Tolima.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Águilas Doradas at home · Deportes Tolima away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Águilas Doradas 29, Deportes Tolima 34.
Águilas Doradas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Deportes Tolima have let in 5 there.
Deportes Tolima score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Águilas Doradas have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Águilas Doradas
- at Junior24 Oct · Primera Awin 23%
- at Cucuta27 Oct · Primera Awin 32%
Deportes Tolima
- vs Deportivo Pasto26 Oct · Primera Awin 50%
- at Deportivo Pereira3 Nov · Primera Awin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.