Bucaramanga
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Bucaramanga 1–0 Deportivo Pasto
The model makes it 59% Bucaramanga, 25% draw, 16% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.87, Deportivo Pasto 0.72.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Bucaramanga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bucaramanga are 3rd on 24 points from 12 games; Deportivo Pasto are bottom on 9 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Águilas Doradas.
- Deportivo Pasto have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Fortaleza FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Bucaramanga 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Deportivo Pasto 0–0 Bucaramanga.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 59% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto
Bucaramanga
- D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
Deportivo Pasto
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bucaramanga
Chance to finish in the top four · 69% today
Deportivo Pasto
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto
- 6 February 2026Deportivo Pasto 0–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 14 November 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 25 May 2025Bucaramanga 2–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 24 October 2024Bucaramanga 0–0 Deportivo PastoCopa Colombia
- 18 October 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–2 BucaramangaCopa Colombia
- 24 August 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–2 BucaramangaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons115
- E. Batalla115
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bucaramanga carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.33 for Deportivo Pasto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Bucaramanga and 0.72 for Deportivo Pasto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucaramanga rate 0.79 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pasto rate 0.58 and 1.63.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bucaramanga a 15.6% chance of the title and Deportivo Pasto 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Bucaramanga against 0.72 for Deportivo Pasto. Bucaramanga's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.63 for Deportivo Pasto.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bucaramanga at home · Deportivo Pasto away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Bucaramanga 30, Deportivo Pasto 33.
Bucaramanga score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Deportivo Pasto have let in 8 there.
Deportivo Pasto score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Bucaramanga have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Bucaramanga
- vs Atletico Nacional3 Nov · Primera Awin 39%
- at Jaguares8 Nov · Primera Awin 44%
Deportivo Pasto
- vs Jaguares5 Nov · Primera Awin 47%
- at Santa Fe10 Nov · Primera Awin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.