Newell's Old Boys
vs
Union Santa Fe
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Union Santa Fe
The model makes it 43% Newell's Old Boys, 29% draw, 28% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Newell's Old Boys 1.43, Union Santa Fe 1.05.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Newell's Old Boys are 8th on 17 points from 12 games; Union Santa Fe are 11th on 13 points from 12 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Newell's Old Boys have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Gimnasia Mendoza.
- Union Santa Fe are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Defensa Y Justicia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended Union Santa Fe 2–3 Newell's Old Boys.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newell's Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newell's Old Boys at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
- D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
Union Santa Fe
- L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Boca Juniors3 October 2026
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
- Newell's Old Boys failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union Santa Fe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys and Union Santa Fe have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Newell's Old Boys won the last one 3–2 on 17 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Union Santa Fe | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaUnion Santa Fe 2–3 Newell's Old Boys - 1 Nov 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaNewell's Old Boys 0–1 Union Santa Fe - 19 Apr 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaUnion Santa Fe 1–1 Newell's Old Boys - 2 Nov 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaUnion Santa Fe 2–0 Newell's Old Boys - 9 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalUnion Santa Fe 1–3 Newell's Old Boys - 16 Sep 2023
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalNewell's Old Boys 1–1 Union Santa Fe
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys | 0.71 | 1.21 |
| Union Santa Fe | 0.94 | 1.63 |
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Union Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona141
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newell's Old Boys carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.6 for Union Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Newell's Old Boys and 1.05 for Union Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newell's Old Boys rate 0.71 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Santa Fe rate 0.94 and 1.63.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newell's Old Boys the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys against 1.05 for Union Santa Fe. Newell's Old Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.63 for Union Santa Fe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newell's Old Boys at home · Union Santa Fe away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Newell's Old Boys 27, Union Santa Fe 30.
Newell's Old Boys score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Union Santa Fe have let in 11 there.
Union Santa Fe score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Newell's Old Boys have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Newell's Old Boys
- at Instituto Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 21%
Union Santa Fe
- vs Velez Sarsfield8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.