Lanus
vs
Gimnasia Mendoza
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Lanus 1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza
The model makes it 48% Lanus, 31% draw, 21% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.08, 3.23 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Lanus 1.33, Gimnasia Mendoza 0.69.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Lanus: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Lanus are 5th on 23 points from 13 games; Gimnasia Mendoza are 6th on 20 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Lanus are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Platense.
- Gimnasia Mendoza have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Velez Sarsfield.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lanus vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lanus vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Lanus
- W1-0away to Platense17 October 2026
- W2-0Velez Sarsfield12 October 2026
- D0-0away to Newell's Old Boys3 October 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes La Plata22 September 2026
- W3-0away to Deportivo Riestra14 September 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield17 October 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata5 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
What these results say
- Lanus went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lanus won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lanus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia Mendoza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia Mendoza failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gimnasia Mendoza had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lanus | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lanus vs Gimnasia Mendoza
- 21 April 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Lanus and Gimnasia Mendoza
Lanus
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica130
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lanus carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.6 for Gimnasia Mendoza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Lanus and 0.69 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lanus rate 0.84 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.79 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lanus a 2.5% chance of the title and Gimnasia Mendoza 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lanus against 0.69 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Lanus's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.29 for Gimnasia Mendoza.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lanus at home · Gimnasia Mendoza away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Lanus 28, Gimnasia Mendoza 27.
Lanus score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Gimnasia Mendoza have let in 5 there.
Gimnasia Mendoza score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Lanus have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Lanus
- at Central Cordoba de Santiago8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 41%
Gimnasia Mendoza
- vs Independiente Rivadavia8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.