Hull City
vs
Brighton
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Hull City 0–1 Brighton
The model makes it 23% Hull City, 27% draw, 50% Brighton — fair odds of 4.35, 3.70 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Hull City 0.93, Brighton 1.64.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Brighton are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Hull City's rating is built from 10 Premier League matches and Brighton's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Hull City are 13th on 11 points from 10 games; Brighton are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Hull City have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Arsenal.
- Brighton have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Brentford.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 February 2016, ended Hull City 0–0 Brighton.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hull City vs Brighton
Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hull City vs Brighton
Hull City
Premier League
- L0-1away to Arsenal7 November 2026
- D2-2Ipswich31 October 2026
- D1-1Brentford25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Fulham17 October 2026
- D2-2Everton11 October 2026
Brighton
Premier League
- W2-0Brentford8 November 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester City31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Liverpool25 October 2026
- W5-0Crystal Palace18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hull City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hull City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brighton won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brighton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hull City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
Brighton
Chance to finish in the top four · 89% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Hull City
Brighton and Hull City have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Hull City on 16 Feb 2016.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Hull City | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 8 goals, an average of 1.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 16 Feb 2016
ChampionshipHull City 0–0 Brighton - 9 Jan 2016
FA CupHull City 1–0 Brighton - 12 Sep 2015
ChampionshipBrighton 1–0 Hull City - 24 Feb 2014
FA CupHull City 2–1 Brighton - 17 Feb 2014
FA CupBrighton 1–1 Hull City - 9 Feb 2013
ChampionshipBrighton 1–0 Hull City
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Brighton's attack rates 63% above Hull City's, and Brighton concede 20% fewer than Hull City. That gives Brighton the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Hull City and Brighton
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß44
- C. Kostoulas32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hull City a 0% chance of the title and Brighton 16.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Hull City against 1.64 for Brighton. Hull City's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.4/0.68 for Brighton.
How the model reaches 50% for Brighton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Brighton to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Hull City's ratings add 8 points and Brighton's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Hull City's ratings40%+8
- Brighton's ratings50%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hull City at home · Brighton away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Hull CityBrighton
Hull City are 13th after 10 Premier League matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); Brighton are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 9th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Hull City 10, Brighton 10.
Brighton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Hull City have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hull City
- at Crystal Palace29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- vs Nottingham Forest2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Bournemouth5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Tottenham14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Manchester City19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
Brighton
- vs Universitatea Craiova26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 64%
- vs Newcastle29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 64%
- at Bournemouth2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Nottingham Forest5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- vs Monaco10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.