Regular Season - 14 · 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

FC Zurich vs FC St. Gallen Super League prediction

Letzigrund Stadion

Our model says: FC Zurich 1–2 FC St. Gallen

The model makes it 33% FC Zurich, 26% draw, 41% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: FC Zurich 1.46, FC St. Gallen 1.67.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to FC St. Gallen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Key facts

FC Zurich are 5th on 21 points from 13 games; FC St. Gallen are 4th on 22 points from 13 games — Super League.
FC Zurich are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Servette FC.
FC St. Gallen have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to FC Lugano.
Last 6 meetings: FC St. Gallen 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended FC St. Gallen 2–1 FC Zurich.

More Swiss Super League predictions

All Swiss Super League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Zurich vs FC St. Gallen

63%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Zurich win Draw FC St. Gallen win

1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–26%
0–26%
1–06%

Scores read FC Zurich first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Gallen at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Zurich vs FC St. Gallen

FC Zurich

Super League

D0-0away to Servette FC8 November 2026
W5-3away to BSC Young Boys1 November 2026
W2-1FC Luzern24 October 2026
W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026

FC St. Gallen

Super League

W5-0FC Lugano8 November 2026
W2-1Servette FC31 October 2026
L0-2away to BSC Young Boys24 October 2026
W1-0Lausanne11 October 2026
W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026

What these results say

FC Zurich went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
FC Zurich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
FC Zurich conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
FC St. Gallen won 4 of these 5 matches.
FC St. Gallen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Switzerland Super League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	FC Zurich	13	6	3	4	25	26	-1	21
4	FC St. Gallen	13	7	1	5	24	22	+2	22

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC Zurich

Chance to finish in the top six · 75% today

Win 87%

Draw 75%

Defeat 67%

FC St. Gallen

Chance to finish in the top six

Win 98%

Draw 96%

Defeat 92%

From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Zurich vs FC St. Gallen

26 July 2026FC St. Gallen 2–1 FC ZurichSuper League
6 April 2026FC St. Gallen 2–1 FC ZurichSuper League
6 December 2025FC St. Gallen 1–2 FC ZurichSuper League
27 September 2025FC Zurich 3–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
17 May 2025FC St. Gallen 3–2 FC ZurichSuper League
9 February 2025FC Zurich 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League

Leading scorers: FC Zurich and FC St. Gallen

FC Zurich

GoalsAssists

U. Emmanuel63
P. Keny61

FC St. Gallen

GoalsAssists

L. Görtler42
A. Hunziker40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Zurich a 0% chance of the title and FC St. Gallen 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on FC Zurich v FC St. Gallen has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 37% / 26% / 37% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is FC Zurich's chance of winning, down 4 points.

FC Zurich win33%▼ −4
Draw26%=
FC St. Gallen win41%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Zurich FC St. Gallen

0.64 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.72

1.53 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.22

1.46 Model expected goals (this match) 1.67

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC St. Gallen the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Zurich against 1.67 for FC St. Gallen. FC Zurich's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.22 for FC St. Gallen.

FC Zurich carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.59 for FC St. Gallen.

How the model reaches 41% for FC St. Gallen to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC St. Gallen to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, FC Zurich's ratings add 5 points and FC St. Gallen's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 41%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage32%−5
Both sides at this match's level31%−1
FC Zurich's ratings36%+5
FC St. Gallen's ratings41%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

FC ZurichModelFC St. Gallen

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

82%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

61%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

38%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

90%

9 of 10 games

63%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

FC ZurichFC St. Gallen

13Matches13

6W 3D 4LRecord7W 1D 5L

25 1.9 per gameGoals scored24 1.8 per game

26 2.0 per gameGoals conceded22 1.7 per game

1 of 13Clean sheets3 of 13

2 of 13Failed to score3 of 13

4 of 4Penalties scored3 of 3

32 2.5 per gameYellow cards22 1.7 per game

4-1-4-1 10×Usual shape3-1-4-2 9×

FC Zurich at home · FC St. Gallen away

6Played6

4W 0D 2LRecord3W 0D 3L

13–11Goals for – against9–11

0 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

FC ZurichFC St. Gallen

FC Zurich are 5th after 13 Super League matches (between 4th and 10th so far); FC St. Gallen are 4th after 13 (between 2nd and 6th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super League matches this season: FC Zurich 13, FC St. Gallen 13.

FC Zurich scored 432617

FC St. Gallen conceded 415822

FC Zurich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC St. Gallen have let in 2 there.

FC St. Gallen scored 413385

FC Zurich conceded 155466

FC St. Gallen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); FC Zurich have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

FC Zurich

at FC Vaduz28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 31%
vs FC Lugano5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 24%
vs Grasshoppers12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 53%
at FC Basel 189319 Dec · Super Leaguewin 32%
vs Lausanne17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 51%

FC St. Gallen

at FC Thun29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 41%
vs Grasshoppers6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 62%
vs FC Vaduz12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 54%
at Lausanne19 Dec · Super Leaguewin 48%
at FC Luzern17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.