St Johnstone
vs
Dundee
Premiership prediction
Our model says: St Johnstone 1–0 Dundee
The model makes it 42% St Johnstone, 28% draw, 30% Dundee — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: St Johnstone 1.50, Dundee 1.20.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- St Johnstone are 5th on 12 points from 9 games; Dundee are 4th on 14 points from 9 games — Premiership.
- St Johnstone are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Dundee United.
- Dundee are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Rangers.
- Last 6 meetings: Dundee 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Dundee 1–1 St Johnstone.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St Johnstone vs Dundee
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Johnstone at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into St Johnstone vs Dundee
St Johnstone
Premiership
- D1-1Dundee United17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Aberdeen11 October 2026
- D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
Dundee
Premiership
- D2-2Rangers17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026
- W2-1Motherwell19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian6 September 2026
- D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
What these results say
- St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for St Johnstone had two goals or fewer.
- Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dundee.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St Johnstone | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 4 | Dundee | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Dundee
- 2 September 2026Dundee 1–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 18 May 2025St Johnstone 0–2 DundeePremiership
- 1 March 2025Dundee 1–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 5 January 2025St Johnstone 1–3 DundeePremiership
- 26 October 2024Dundee 1–2 St JohnstonePremiership
- 30 March 2024St Johnstone 1–2 DundeePremiership
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Dundee
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink30
- J. Westley30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St Johnstone carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.41 for Dundee. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for St Johnstone and 1.20 for Dundee. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Johnstone rate 0.57 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee rate 0.64 and 1.55.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Johnstone the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for St Johnstone against 1.20 for Dundee. St Johnstone's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.55 for Dundee.
How the model reaches 42% for St Johnstone to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for St Johnstone to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, St Johnstone's ratings take away 23 points and Dundee's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- St Johnstone's ratings21%−23
- Dundee's ratings42%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St Johnstone at home · Dundee away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
St JohnstoneDundee
St Johnstone are 5th after 9 Premiership matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Dundee are 4th after 9 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: St Johnstone 9, Dundee 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
St Johnstone
- at Falkirk21 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
- at Dundee United28 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
Dundee
- vs Heart of Midlothian21 Nov · Premiershipwin 36%
- at Aberdeen28 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.