Crystal Palace
vs
Liverpool
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool
The model makes it 24% Crystal Palace, 24% draw, 52% Liverpool — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.24, Liverpool 2.09.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Liverpool are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Crystal Palace's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Liverpool's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Crystal Palace are 16th on 7 points from 7 games; Liverpool are 5th on 12 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Crystal Palace have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Brighton.
- Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Brentford.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Liverpool 3–1 Crystal Palace.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Crystal Palace
Premier League
- L0-5away to Brighton18 October 2026
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
Liverpool
Premier League
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bournemouth20 September 2026
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Crystal Palace had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
- 25 April 2026Liverpool 3–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 29 October 2025Liverpool 0–3 Crystal PalaceLeague Cup
- 27 September 2025Crystal Palace 2–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 10 August 2025Crystal Palace 2–2 LiverpoolCommunity Shield
- 25 May 2025Liverpool 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 5 October 2024Crystal Palace 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Liverpool
Crystal Palace
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Crystal Palace carry a model rating of 6.73 against 7.07 for Liverpool. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Crystal Palace and 2.09 for Liverpool. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crystal Palace rate 0.93 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Liverpool rate 1.28 and 0.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crystal Palace a 0% chance of the title and Liverpool 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 2.09 for Liverpool. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/0.83 for Liverpool.
How the model reaches 52% for Liverpool to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Liverpool to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Crystal Palace's ratings add 7 points and Liverpool's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Crystal Palace's ratings40%+7
- Liverpool's ratings52%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Crystal Palace at home · Liverpool away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Crystal PalaceLiverpool
Crystal Palace are 16th after 7 Premier League matches (between 12th and 20th so far); Liverpool are 5th after 7 (between 5th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Crystal Palace 7, Liverpool 7.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Liverpool have let in 1 there.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Crystal Palace
- at Coventry21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Real Sociedad26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 34%
Liverpool
- vs Manchester United22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Club Brugge KV25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.