St Mirren
vs
Rangers
Premiership prediction
Our model says: St Mirren 0–2 Rangers
The model makes it 18% St Mirren, 23% draw, 59% Rangers — fair odds of 5.56, 4.35 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: St Mirren 0.92, Rangers 2.07.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Rangers are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- St Mirren are 8th on 10 points from 9 games; Rangers are 2nd on 20 points from 9 games — Premiership.
- St Mirren have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Aberdeen.
- Rangers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Dundee.
- Last 6 meetings: Rangers 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended Rangers 1–0 St Mirren.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St Mirren vs Rangers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rangers at 59% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into St Mirren vs Rangers
St Mirren
Premiership
- L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Heart of Midlothian10 October 2026
- L0-3Dundee United19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
- L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
Rangers
Premiership
- D2-2away to Dundee17 October 2026
- W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Celtic20 September 2026
- W1-0St Mirren9 September 2026
- W1-0Motherwell5 September 2026
What these results say
- St Mirren did not win any of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for St Mirren had three goals or more.
- Rangers went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | St Mirren | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 10 |
| 2 | Rangers | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Rangers
- 9 September 2026Rangers 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 16 August 2026Rangers 5–1 St MirrenLeague Cup
- 15 March 2026St Mirren 0–1 RangersPremiership
- 30 December 2025Rangers 2–1 St MirrenPremiership
- 24 August 2025St Mirren 1–1 RangersPremiership
- 26 April 2025St Mirren 2–2 RangersPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and Rangers
St Mirren
GoalsAssists
- K. Phillips31
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi41
- L. Shankland30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
St Mirren carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.7 for Rangers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for St Mirren and 2.07 for Rangers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Mirren rate 0.45 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rangers rate 0.90 and 1.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St Mirren a 0% chance of the title and Rangers 14%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rangers the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for St Mirren against 2.07 for Rangers. St Mirren's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.21 for Rangers.
How the model reaches 59% for Rangers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rangers to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, St Mirren's ratings add 36 points and Rangers's ratings take away 7 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- St Mirren's ratings66%+36
- Rangers's ratings59%−7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St Mirren at home · Rangers away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
St MirrenRangers
St Mirren are 8th after 9 Premiership matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Rangers are 2nd after 9 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: St Mirren 9, Rangers 9.
St Mirren score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Rangers have let in 2 there.
Rangers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); St Mirren have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
St Mirren
- at Celtic21 Nov · Premiershipwin 6%
- vs Kilmarnock28 Nov · Premiershipwin 38%
Rangers
- at Motherwell21 Nov · Premiershipwin 46%
- vs Falkirk28 Nov · Premiershipwin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.