Dundee United
vs
Motherwell
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Dundee United 2–1 Motherwell
The model makes it 39% Dundee United, 27% draw, 34% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dundee United 1.52, Motherwell 1.36.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Dundee United are 6th on 12 points from 9 games; Motherwell are 10th on 8 points from 9 games — Premiership.
- Dundee United are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to St Johnstone.
- Motherwell have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Kilmarnock.
- Last 6 meetings: Motherwell 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Motherwell 3–0 Dundee United.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dundee United vs Motherwell
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dundee United at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dundee United vs Motherwell
Dundee United
Premiership
- D1-1away to St Johnstone17 October 2026
- W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026
- W3-0away to St Mirren19 September 2026
- D1-1Falkirk5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Motherwell2 September 2026
Motherwell
Premiership
- L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026
- L0-2Celtic11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
What these results say
- Dundee United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundee United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee United vs Motherwell
- 2 September 2026Motherwell 3–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 28 February 2026Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 13 December 2025Dundee United 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 29 October 2025Motherwell 2–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 22 February 2025Dundee United 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 14 December 2024Motherwell 4–3 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee United and Motherwell
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall23
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dundee United carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.42 for Motherwell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Dundee United and 1.36 for Motherwell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundee United rate 0.58 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motherwell rate 0.65 and 1.55.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee United the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dundee United against 1.36 for Motherwell. Dundee United's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.55 for Motherwell.
How the model reaches 39% for Dundee United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Dundee United to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Dundee United's ratings take away 25 points and Motherwell's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Dundee United's ratings19%−25
- Motherwell's ratings39%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dundee United at home · Motherwell away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Dundee UnitedMotherwell
Dundee United are 6th after 9 Premiership matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Motherwell are 10th after 9 (between 3rd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Dundee United 9, Motherwell 9.
Dundee United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Motherwell have let in 5 there.
Motherwell score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Dundee United have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Dundee United
- at Hibernian21 Nov · Premiershipwin 28%
- vs St Johnstone28 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
Motherwell
- vs Rangers21 Nov · Premiershipwin 29%
- vs Hibernian28 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.