Barnet
vs
Tranmere
FA Cup prediction
Our model says: Barnet 2–1 Tranmere
The model makes it 64% Barnet, 19% draw, 17% Tranmere — fair odds of 1.56, 5.26 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Barnet 2.73, Tranmere 1.19.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Barnet: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Barnet's rating is built from 56 League Two matches and Tranmere's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Barnet are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games; Tranmere are 13th on 15 points from 12 games — League Two.
- Barnet have won 4 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Swindon Town.
- Tranmere have won 1 of their last 5 League Two games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Northampton.
- Last 3 meetings: Barnet 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 October 2026, ended Tranmere 1–2 Barnet.
Chance to go through
FA Cup 1/128-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Barnet69%
- Level after ninety minutes17%
- Tranmere14%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More FA Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barnet vs Tranmere
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barnet at 64% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Barnet vs Tranmere
Barnet
League Two
- L1-3Swindon Town20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Bristol Rovers10 October 2026
- W3-1Fleetwood Town19 September 2026
- W2-1Accrington Stanley12 September 2026
Tranmere
League Two
- W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
- L1-2Barnet17 October 2026
- D1-1Rochdale10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Chesterfield3 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall26 September 2026
What these results say
- Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Barnet had three goals or more.
- Tranmere scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tranmere conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Barnet vs Tranmere
- 17 October 2026Tranmere 1–2 BarnetLeague Two
- 27 January 2026Barnet 1–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 11 October 2025Tranmere 0–2 BarnetLeague Two
Leading scorers: Barnet and Tranmere
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- K. Tshimanga85
- C. Lakin63
Tranmere
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Barnet carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.01 for Tranmere. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.73 goals for Barnet and 1.19 for Tranmere. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Barnet rate 0.70 in attack and 2.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tranmere rate 0.45 and 2.40.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.73 expected goals for Barnet against 1.19 for Tranmere. Barnet's attack/defence rating is 0.7/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.4 for Tranmere.
How the model reaches 64% for Barnet to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barnet to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Barnet's ratings take away 28 points and Tranmere's ratings add 48 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Barnet's ratings16%−28
- Tranmere's ratings64%+48
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Barnet at home · Tranmere away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Barnet 10, Tranmere 12.
Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Tranmere have let in 9 there.
Tranmere score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Barnet have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Barnet
- at Walsall14 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- vs Port Vale21 Nov · League Twowin 53%
Tranmere
- at Fleetwood Town14 Nov · League Twowin 27%
- vs Colchester21 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Bristol Rovers28 Nov · League Twowin 28%
- vs Salford City1 Dec · League Twowin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.