Guayaquil City FC
vs
Libertad
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Guayaquil City FC 1–2 Libertad
The model makes it 34% Guayaquil City FC, 26% draw, 40% Libertad — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Guayaquil City FC 1.47, Libertad 1.61.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Libertad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Last 5 meetings: Libertad 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 October 2026, ended Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
- L0-4away to Libertad17 October 2026
- W3-2Emelec10 October 2026
Libertad
- W4-0Guayaquil City FC17 October 2026
- W3-0Leones del Norte9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
- 17 October 2026Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 15 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 2–2 LibertadLiga Pro
- 21 April 2026Libertad 0–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 10 October 2023Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 6 May 2023Guayaquil City FC 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Guayaquil City FC and Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
GoalsAssists
- E. Mero134
- D. Dorregaray82
Libertad
GoalsAssists
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Guayaquil City FC carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.59 for Libertad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Guayaquil City FC and 1.61 for Libertad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guayaquil City FC rate 0.70 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Libertad rate 0.77 and 1.29.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Guayaquil City FC against 1.61 for Libertad. Guayaquil City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.29 for Libertad.
Season stats
Guayaquil City FC at home · Libertad away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Guayaquil City FC 33, Libertad 32.
Libertad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Guayaquil City FC have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Guayaquil City FC
- at Leones del Norte8 Nov · Liga Prowin 28%
Libertad
- vs Emelec8 Nov · Liga Prowin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.