Independiente del Valle
vs
Universidad Catolica Quito
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Independiente del Valle 2–1 Universidad Catolica Quito
The model makes it 55% Independiente del Valle, 22% draw, 23% Universidad Catolica Quito — fair odds of 1.82, 4.55 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 2.48, Universidad Catolica Quito 1.43.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Independiente del Valle are top on 77 points from 31 games; Universidad Catolica Quito are 4th on 51 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Aucas.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Macara.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Independiente del Valle 2–2 Universidad Catolica Quito.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Quito
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente del Valle at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Quito
Independiente del Valle
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Libertad13 September 2026
- W3-1Macara5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barcelona SC3 September 2026
- D2-2Universidad Catolica Quito29 August 2026
Universidad Catolica Quito
- L0-1Macara11 October 2026
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito20 September 2026
- W2-1Orense SC15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Delfin SC6 September 2026
- D1-1Aucas3 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente del Valle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Independiente del Valle had three goals or more.
- Universidad Catolica Quito scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 34 | +41 | 77 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 30 | +22 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs Universidad Catolica Quito
- 29 August 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 13 May 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 0–3 Independiente del ValleSupercopa de Ecuador
- 1 May 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 2–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 14 December 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 0–1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 8 November 2025Independiente del Valle 0–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 13 October 2025Independiente del Valle 1–2 Universidad Catolica QuitoCopa Ecuador
Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and Universidad Catolica Quito
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- D. Reasco94
- C. González90
- M. Perelló83
Universidad Catolica Quito
GoalsAssists
- J. Fajardo113
- M. Alonso84
- B. Palacios61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente del Valle carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.65 for Universidad Catolica Quito. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.43 for Universidad Catolica Quito. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente del Valle rate 1.18 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universidad Catolica Quito rate 0.86 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente del Valle a 100% chance of the title and Universidad Catolica Quito 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente del Valle the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Independiente del Valle against 1.43 for Universidad Catolica Quito. Independiente del Valle's attack/defence rating is 1.18/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.29 for Universidad Catolica Quito.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente del Valle at home · Universidad Catolica Quito away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Independiente del Valle 31, Universidad Catolica Quito 32.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Universidad Catolica Quito have let in 5 there.
Universidad Catolica Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Independiente del Valle have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Independiente del Valle
- vs LDU de Quito1 Nov · Liga Prowin 55%
- at Aucas8 Nov · Liga Prowin 44%
- vs Macara22 Nov · Liga Prowin 56%
Universidad Catolica Quito
- vs Aucas1 Nov · Liga Prowin 52%
- at Macara8 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
- vs Barcelona SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 45%
- vs Independiente del Valle29 Nov · Liga Prowin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.