Delfin SC
vs
Deportivo Cuenca
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Delfin SC 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca
The model makes it 39% Delfin SC, 32% draw, 29% Deportivo Cuenca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Delfin SC 1.14, Deportivo Cuenca 0.91.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Delfin SC are 15th on 32 points from 32 games; Deportivo Cuenca are 11th on 41 points from 33 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Delfin SC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Mushuc Runa SC.
- Deportivo Cuenca are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Tecnico Universitario.
- Last 6 meetings: Delfin SC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Delfin SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Delfin SC at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
- W3-2Mushuc Runa SC9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tecnico Universitario20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC13 September 2026
- L0-1Universidad Catolica Quito6 September 2026
- W1-0Tecnico Universitario1 September 2026
Deportivo Cuenca
- W2-1Tecnico Universitario16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Orense SC11 October 2026
- D1-1Mushuc Runa SC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to LDU de Quito13 September 2026
- L0-1Libertad7 September 2026
What these results say
- Delfin SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Delfin SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Delfin SC had two goals or fewer.
- Deportivo Cuenca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cuenca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Cuenca had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Delfin SC | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 32 |
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Delfin SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
- 31 May 2026Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 22 February 2026Delfin SC 1–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 6 December 2025Deportivo Cuenca 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 1 November 2025Delfin SC 2–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 13 July 2025Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 16 March 2025Delfin SC 0–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Delfin SC and Deportivo Cuenca
Delfin SC
GoalsAssists
- F. Ayunta81
Deportivo Cuenca
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Delfin SC carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.35 for Deportivo Cuenca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Delfin SC and 0.91 for Deportivo Cuenca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Delfin SC rate 0.49 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Cuenca rate 0.51 and 1.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Delfin SC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Delfin SC against 0.91 for Deportivo Cuenca. Delfin SC's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.43 for Deportivo Cuenca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Delfin SC at home · Deportivo Cuenca away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Delfin SC 32, Deportivo Cuenca 31.
Delfin SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Deportivo Cuenca have let in 7 there.
Deportivo Cuenca score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Delfin SC have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Delfin SC
- at Mushuc Runa SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Manta FC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
- vs Orense SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 41%
Deportivo Cuenca
- vs Orense SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 43%
- at Tecnico Universitario22 Nov · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Manta FC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 46%
- vs Delfin SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.