Relegation Group - 5 · 1 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC Liga Pro prediction

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato

Our model says: Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Manta FC

The model makes it 53% Mushuc Runa SC, 25% draw, 22% Manta FC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Mushuc Runa SC 1.83, Manta FC 0.98.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Mushuc Runa SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Mushuc Runa SC are 12th on 39 points from 32 games; Manta FC are 16th on 27 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
  • Mushuc Runa SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Delfin SC.
  • Manta FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Tecnico Universitario.
  • Last 6 meetings: Mushuc Runa SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Manta FC 1–2 Mushuc Runa SC.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC

53%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Mushuc Runa SC win Draw Manta FC win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Mushuc Runa SC first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mushuc Runa SC at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC

Mushuc Runa SC

  • L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Deportivo Cuenca20 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Guayaquil City FC12 September 2026
  • D1-1Leones del Norte8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to LDU de Quito2 September 2026

Manta FC

  • W1-0Tecnico Universitario10 October 2026
  • W2-1Orense SC21 September 2026
  • D0-0Aucas12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Emelec8 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Macara2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Mushuc Runa SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Mushuc Runa SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mushuc Runa SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mushuc Runa SC32912113842-439
16Manta FC3276192043-2327

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC

  • 1 August 2026Manta FC 1–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 11 April 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 8 November 2025Manta FC 3–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 25 October 2025Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 30 August 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
  • 10 May 2025Manta FC 2–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro

The two sides

Mushuc Runa SC carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.25 for Manta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Mushuc Runa SC and 0.98 for Manta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Mushuc Runa SC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manta FC rate 0.50 and 1.68.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Mushuc Runa SC the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC against 0.98 for Manta FC. Mushuc Runa SC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.68 for Manta FC.

Season stats

Mushuc Runa SCManta FC
32Matches32
9W 12D 11LRecord7W 6D 19L
38 1.2 per gameGoals scored20 0.6 per game
42 1.3 per gameGoals conceded43 1.3 per game
11 of 32Clean sheets7 of 32
8 of 32Failed to score18 of 32
4 of 5Penalties scored7 of 8
74 2.3 per gameYellow cards92 2.9 per game
8Red cards5
4-4-2 27×Usual shape4-4-2 12×

Mushuc Runa SC at home · Manta FC away

15Played15
6W 6D 3LRecord2W 2D 11L
16–14Goals for – against10–28
8 of 15Clean sheets1 of 15

League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga Pro matches this season: Mushuc Runa SC 32, Manta FC 32.

Mushuc Runa SC scored 745946
Manta FC conceded 4768611

Mushuc Runa SC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Manta FC have let in 8 there.

Manta FC scored 254243
Mushuc Runa SC conceded 3858313

Manta FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Mushuc Runa SC have let in 8 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Mushuc Runa SC

  • vs Delfin SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 49%
  • at Orense SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
  • vs Tecnico Universitario29 Nov · Liga Prowin 54%

Manta FC

  • at Tecnico Universitario8 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
  • vs Delfin SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
  • at Deportivo Cuenca29 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.