Orense SC
vs
Tecnico Universitario
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Orense SC 2–1 Tecnico Universitario
The model makes it 51% Orense SC, 25% draw, 24% Tecnico Universitario — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orense SC 1.88, Tecnico Universitario 1.13.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Orense SC are 13th on 34 points from 32 games; Tecnico Universitario are 14th on 33 points from 33 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Orense SC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Tecnico Universitario are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Last 6 meetings: Tecnico Universitario 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 July 2026, ended Orense SC 1–2 Tecnico Universitario.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orense SC at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
- D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Manta FC21 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad Catolica Quito15 September 2026
- W4-3Guayaquil City FC8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leones del Norte3 September 2026
Tecnico Universitario
- L1-2away to Deportivo Cuenca16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026
- D1-1Delfin SC20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Leones del Norte13 September 2026
- L1-3LDU de Quito5 September 2026
What these results say
- Orense SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Orense SC | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 34 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 33 | 10 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario
- 7 July 2026Orense SC 1–2 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 28 February 2026Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 8 July 2025Tecnico Universitario 1–2 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 11 March 2025Orense SC 2–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 10 November 2024Orense SC 0–2 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 21 May 2024Tecnico Universitario 1–0 Orense SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Orense SC and Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
GoalsAssists
- A. Herrera92
Tecnico Universitario
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orense SC carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.24 for Tecnico Universitario. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Orense SC and 1.13 for Tecnico Universitario. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orense SC rate 0.64 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tecnico Universitario rate 0.53 and 1.81.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,980 correct results out of 4,126 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orense SC the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Orense SC against 1.13 for Tecnico Universitario. Orense SC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.81 for Tecnico Universitario.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orense SC at home · Tecnico Universitario away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Orense SC 31, Tecnico Universitario 33.
Orense SC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Tecnico Universitario have let in 6 there.
Tecnico Universitario score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Orense SC have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Orense SC
- at Deportivo Cuenca8 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs Mushuc Runa SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Delfin SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
Tecnico Universitario
- vs Manta FC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 43%
- vs Deportivo Cuenca22 Nov · Liga Prowin 37%
- at Mushuc Runa SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 21%
- vs Orense SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.