Delfin SC
vs
Manta FC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Delfin SC 1–0 Manta FC
The model makes it 40% Delfin SC, 32% draw, 28% Manta FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Delfin SC 1.25, Manta FC 0.86.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Delfin SC are 15th on 29 points from 31 games; Manta FC are 16th on 24 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Delfin SC are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tecnico Universitario.
- Manta FC have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Orense SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Delfin SC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 July 2026, ended Manta FC 0–1 Delfin SC.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Delfin SC vs Manta FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Delfin SC at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Delfin SC vs Manta FC
Delfin SC
- D1-1away to Tecnico Universitario20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC13 September 2026
- L0-1Universidad Catolica Quito6 September 2026
- W1-0Tecnico Universitario1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mushuc Runa SC28 August 2026
Manta FC
- W2-1Orense SC21 September 2026
- D0-0Aucas12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Emelec8 September 2026
- L3-4away to Macara2 September 2026
- W2-0Barcelona SC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Delfin SC had two goals or fewer.
- Delfin SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Delfin SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Delfin SC | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 29 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 31 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Delfin SC vs Manta FC
- 15 July 2026Manta FC 0–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 14 March 2026Delfin SC 0–1 Manta FCLiga Pro
- 28 June 2025Delfin SC 2–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
- 4 March 2025Manta FC 2–2 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 5 October 2021Delfin SC 2–1 Manta FCLiga Pro
- 20 April 2021Manta FC 1–2 Delfin SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Delfin SC and Manta FC
Delfin SC
- F. Ayunta8 goals1 assist
Manta FC
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Delfin SC carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.23 for Manta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Delfin SC and 0.86 for Manta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Delfin SC rate 0.44 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manta FC rate 0.50 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Delfin SC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Delfin SC against 0.86 for Manta FC. Delfin SC's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.74 for Manta FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Delfin SC at home · Manta FC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Delfin SC 31, Manta FC 31.
Delfin SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Manta FC have let in 12 there.
Manta FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Delfin SC have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Delfin SC
- at Orense SC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 27%
- vs Deportivo Cuenca1 Nov · Liga Prowin 36%
- at Mushuc Runa SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Manta FC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
Manta FC
- vs Deportivo Cuenca25 Oct · Liga Prowin 36%
- at Mushuc Runa SC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 23%
- at Tecnico Universitario8 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs Delfin SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.