Leones del Norte
vs
Emelec
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec
The model makes it 44% Leones del Norte, 30% draw, 26% Emelec — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Leones del Norte 1.47, Emelec 0.88.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Emelec 2–1 Leones del Norte.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leones del Norte vs Emelec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leones del Norte at 44% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Leones del Norte vs Emelec
- 30 August 2026Emelec 2–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 3 May 2026Leones del Norte 2–0 EmelecLiga Pro
- 8 October 2025Leones del Norte 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
Leading scorers: Leones del Norte and Emelec
Leones del Norte
- Juan Luis Anangonó León10 goals
Emelec
- R. Carrillo10 goals3 assists
- L. Klimowicz6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leones del Norte carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.35 for Emelec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Leones del Norte and 0.88 for Emelec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leones del Norte rate 0.61 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Emelec rate 0.54 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leones del Norte the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Leones del Norte against 0.88 for Emelec. Leones del Norte's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.48 for Emelec.
Season stats
Leones del Norte at home · Emelec away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Leones del Norte 31, Emelec 31.
Leones del Norte score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Emelec have let in 7 there.
Emelec score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Leones del Norte have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Leones del Norte
- vs Libertad25 Oct · Liga Prowin 38%
- at Emelec1 Nov · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Guayaquil City FC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 41%
Emelec
- vs Guayaquil City FC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 37%
- vs Leones del Norte1 Nov · Liga Prowin 36%
- at Libertad8 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.