Barcelona SC
vs
Universidad Catolica Quito
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Barcelona SC 1–0 Universidad Catolica Quito
The model makes it 41% Barcelona SC, 29% draw, 30% Universidad Catolica Quito — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Barcelona SC 1.56, Universidad Catolica Quito 1.19.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Barcelona SC are bottom on 44 points from 30 games; Universidad Catolica Quito are 3rd on 51 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Barcelona SC are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Delfin SC.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to LDU de Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad Catolica Quito 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Universidad Catolica Quito 2–1 Barcelona SC.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica Quito
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona SC at 41% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica Quito
Barcelona SC
- D1-1Delfin SC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Aucas7 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente del Valle3 September 2026
- L0-2away to Manta FC30 August 2026
- W3-0Orense SC23 August 2026
Universidad Catolica Quito
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito20 September 2026
- W2-1Orense SC15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Delfin SC6 September 2026
- D1-1Aucas3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Independiente del Valle29 August 2026
What these results say
- Barcelona SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Universidad Catolica Quito.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 29 | +23 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona SC vs Universidad Catolica Quito
- 22 July 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 2–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 22 March 2026Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 7 December 2025Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 2 November 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 31 August 2025Barcelona SC 2–3 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 11 May 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 2–2 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Barcelona SC and Universidad Catolica Quito
Barcelona SC
- D. Benedetto8 goals2 assists
Universidad Catolica Quito
- J. Fajardo10 goals3 assists
- M. Alonso8 goals3 assists
- B. Palacios6 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Barcelona SC carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.67 for Universidad Catolica Quito. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Barcelona SC and 1.19 for Universidad Catolica Quito. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Barcelona SC rate 0.74 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universidad Catolica Quito rate 0.90 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universidad Catolica Quito, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona SC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Barcelona SC against 1.19 for Universidad Catolica Quito. Barcelona SC's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.3 for Universidad Catolica Quito.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Barcelona SC at home · Universidad Catolica Quito away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Barcelona SC 30, Universidad Catolica Quito 31.
Barcelona SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Universidad Catolica Quito have let in 3 there.
Universidad Catolica Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (13 goals); Barcelona SC have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Barcelona SC
- at Aucas25 Oct · Liga Prowin 34%
- at Macara1 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- vs LDU de Quito8 Nov · Liga Prowin 41%
Universidad Catolica Quito
- at Independiente del Valle25 Oct · Liga Prowin 26%
- vs Aucas1 Nov · Liga Prowin 48%
- at Macara8 Nov · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Barcelona SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.