Sparta Rotterdam
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 AZ Alkmaar
The model makes it 25% Sparta Rotterdam, 24% draw, 51% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.00, 4.17 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.25, AZ Alkmaar 1.99.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: AZ Alkmaar are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sparta Rotterdam's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and AZ Alkmaar's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Sparta Rotterdam are 12th on 12 points from 12 games; AZ Alkmaar are 5th on 23 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to ADO Den Haag.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Groningen.
- Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
Has the model earned this number?
AZ Alkmaar at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie
- L1-3away to ADO Den Haag7 November 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen1 November 2026
- L1-2Ajax25 October 2026
- W3-2Willem II17 October 2026
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie
- W4-3Groningen8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Ajax31 October 2026
- L0-2Twente25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cambuur18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
What these results say
- Sparta Rotterdam scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
- AZ Alkmaar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sparta Rotterdam
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
AZ Alkmaar
Chance to finish in the top four · 36% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
- 22 February 2026AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 2 November 2025Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 26 January 2025AZ Alkmaar 1–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 24 November 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 2 March 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 17 September 2023AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink63
- R. Daal51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sparta Rotterdam a 0% chance of the title and AZ Alkmaar 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.99 for AZ Alkmaar. Sparta Rotterdam's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.91 for AZ Alkmaar.
How the model reaches 51% for AZ Alkmaar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for AZ Alkmaar to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sparta Rotterdam's ratings add 10 points and AZ Alkmaar's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- Sparta Rotterdam's ratings41%+10
- AZ Alkmaar's ratings51%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sparta Rotterdam at home · AZ Alkmaar away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam are 12th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 5th and 15th so far); AZ Alkmaar are 5th after 12 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Sparta Rotterdam 12, AZ Alkmaar 12.
Sparta Rotterdam score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); AZ Alkmaar have let in 3 there.
AZ Alkmaar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Sparta Rotterdam have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sparta Rotterdam
- at Cambuur28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 23%
- vs NEC Nijmegen5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 33%
- at Twente13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 10%
- at Fortuna Sittard19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Excelsior9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 46%
AZ Alkmaar
- at Sparta Praha26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
- at PEC Zwolle29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 52%
- vs PSV Eindhoven5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 29%
- vs Sturm Graz10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 55%
- vs NEC Nijmegen13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.