Ajax
vs
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Ajax 2–0 ADO Den Haag
The model makes it 67% Ajax, 20% draw, 13% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Ajax 2.47, ADO Den Haag 0.86.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Ajax are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Ajax's rating is built from 48 Eredivisie matches and ADO Den Haag's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Ajax are 3rd on 25 points from 12 games; ADO Den Haag are 17th on 9 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Twente.
- ADO Den Haag have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Sparta Rotterdam.
- Last 6 meetings: Ajax 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2021, ended Ajax 5–0 ADO Den Haag.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ajax vs ADO Den Haag
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ajax vs ADO Den Haag
Ajax
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to Twente8 November 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sparta Rotterdam25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Groningen18 October 2026
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie
- W3-1Sparta Rotterdam7 November 2026
- L0-1away to PEC Zwolle1 November 2026
- L2-3Heerenveen24 October 2026
- W2-1PSV Eindhoven17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
What these results say
- Ajax went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ADO Den Haag had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ajax
Chance to finish in the top four · 78% today
ADO Den Haag
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Ajax vs ADO Den Haag
- 21 March 2021Ajax 5–0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 20 December 2020ADO Den Haag 2–4 AjaxEredivisie
- 22 December 2019Ajax 6–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- 6 October 2019ADO Den Haag 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 24 February 2019ADO Den Haag 1–5 AjaxEredivisie
- 2 December 2018Ajax 5–1 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and ADO Den Haag
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
ADO Den Haag
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ajax a 13.6% chance of the title and ADO Den Haag 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Ajax against 0.86 for ADO Den Haag. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.22 for ADO Den Haag.
How the model reaches 67% for Ajax to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Ajax to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Ajax's ratings add 12 points and ADO Den Haag's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Ajax's ratings54%+12
- ADO Den Haag's ratings67%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ajax at home · ADO Den Haag away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AjaxADO Den Haag
Ajax are 3rd after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 5th so far); ADO Den Haag are 17th after 12 (between 15th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Ajax 12, ADO Den Haag 12.
Ajax score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); ADO Den Haag have let in 9 there.
ADO Den Haag score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Ajax have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ajax
- vs FC Thun26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 81%
- at Feyenoord29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
- vs Utrecht6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 67%
- at St. Truiden10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 38%
- vs Cambuur13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 65%
ADO Den Haag
- vs Utrecht29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
- vs Excelsior6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 49%
- at Willem II13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 53%
- at NEC Nijmegen20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Telstar10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.