Groningen
vs
Heerenveen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Groningen 1–2 Heerenveen
The model makes it 37% Groningen, 25% draw, 38% Heerenveen — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Groningen 1.76, Heerenveen 1.77.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Groningen and Heerenveen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Groningen's rating is built from 47 Eredivisie matches and Heerenveen's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Groningen are 9th on 15 points from 12 games; Heerenveen are 6th on 21 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Groningen are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to AZ Alkmaar.
- Heerenveen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-3 win at home to Feyenoord.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Heerenveen 0–2 Groningen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Groningen vs Heerenveen
Has the model earned this number?
Heerenveen at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Groningen vs Heerenveen
Groningen
Eredivisie
- L3-4away to AZ Alkmaar8 November 2026
- L2-3Sparta Rotterdam1 November 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen25 October 2026
- L2-5Ajax18 October 2026
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
Heerenveen
Eredivisie
- W5-3Feyenoord8 November 2026
- W1-0NEC Nijmegen31 October 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag24 October 2026
- W4-0Excelsior16 October 2026
- L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026
What these results say
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
- Heerenveen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heerenveen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Heerenveen
Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Heerenveen
- 18 January 2026Heerenveen 0–2 GroningenEredivisie
- 16 August 2025Groningen 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 25 January 2025Groningen 1–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 22 September 2024Heerenveen 2–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 19 March 2023Groningen 0–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 22 January 2023Heerenveen 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Heerenveen
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow63
- R. Meerveld51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Groningen a 0% chance of the title and Heerenveen 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Groningen v Heerenveen has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 37% / 25% / 38%: the biggest move is Heerenveen's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Groningen win37%▼ −2
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Heerenveen win38%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heerenveen the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Groningen against 1.77 for Heerenveen. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.98 for Heerenveen.
How the model reaches 38% for Heerenveen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Heerenveen to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Groningen's ratings add 3 points and Heerenveen's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Groningen's ratings35%+3
- Heerenveen's ratings38%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Groningen at home · Heerenveen away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GroningenHeerenveen
Groningen are 9th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Heerenveen are 6th after 12 (between 5th and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Groningen 12, Heerenveen 12.
Groningen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (8 goals); Heerenveen have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Groningen
- vs Willem II27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 76%
- at Telstar4 Dec · Eredivisiewin 36%
- vs Feyenoord13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 28%
- at Cambuur20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 33%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 52%
Heerenveen
- at Fortuna Sittard29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- vs Cambuur6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 53%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 56%
- at Utrecht19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 43%
- at AZ Alkmaar9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.