Utrecht
vs
Cambuur
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Utrecht 2–1 Cambuur
The model makes it 40% Utrecht, 23% draw, 37% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Utrecht 2.07, Cambuur 1.96.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
A tight game: Utrecht and Cambuur are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Utrecht's rating is built from 48 Eredivisie matches and Cambuur's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Utrecht are 14th on 12 points from 12 games; Cambuur are 10th on 15 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Utrecht are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to NEC Nijmegen.
- Cambuur have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Cambuur 1–0 Utrecht.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Utrecht vs Cambuur
Has the model earned this number?
Utrecht at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Utrecht vs Cambuur
Utrecht
Eredivisie
- L2-3NEC Nijmegen8 November 2026
- L2-4away to Telstar1 November 2026
- D1-1PEC Zwolle24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Twente18 October 2026
- W3-1Willem II11 October 2026
Cambuur
Eredivisie
- L2-5PSV Eindhoven8 November 2026
- W4-0GO Ahead Eagles31 October 2026
- W6-1away to Willem II24 October 2026
- D2-2AZ Alkmaar18 October 2026
- W1-0away to PEC Zwolle11 October 2026
What these results say
- Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Utrecht.
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cambuur had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Utrecht
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Cambuur
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Utrecht vs Cambuur
- 24 July 2026Cambuur 1–0 UtrechtFriendlies Clubs
- 6 May 2023Cambuur 0–3 UtrechtEredivisie
- 13 August 2022Utrecht 0–0 CambuurEredivisie
- 5 February 2022Utrecht 3–2 CambuurEredivisie
- 21 November 2021Cambuur 2–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 25 January 2017Utrecht 4–4 CambuurKNVB Beker
Leading scorers: Utrecht and Cambuur
Utrecht
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui62
- I. Hamache53
- N. Binder52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cambuur (10th, with Utrecht 14th), while our numbers lean to Utrecht. Utrecht rate 0.82 in attack and 1.32 in defence, Cambuur 0.99 and 1.36 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Utrecht the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Utrecht against 1.96 for Cambuur. Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.36 for Cambuur.
How the model reaches 40% for Utrecht to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Utrecht to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Utrecht's ratings take away 3 points and Cambuur's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Utrecht's ratings42%−3
- Cambuur's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Utrecht at home · Cambuur away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
UtrechtCambuur
Utrecht are 14th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 10th and 16th so far); Cambuur are 10th after 12 (between 9th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Utrecht 12, Cambuur 12.
Utrecht score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Cambuur have let in 7 there.
Cambuur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Utrecht have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Utrecht
- at ADO Den Haag29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
- at Ajax6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 14%
- vs Fortuna Sittard12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 40%
- vs Heerenveen19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 32%
- at PEC Zwolle9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 39%
Cambuur
- vs Sparta Rotterdam28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 56%
- at Heerenveen6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 25%
- at Ajax13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 16%
- vs Groningen20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 45%
- at NEC Nijmegen10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.