Feyenoord
vs
Excelsior
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Feyenoord 3–0 Excelsior
The model makes it 75% Feyenoord, 15% draw, 10% Excelsior — fair odds of 1.33, 6.67 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Feyenoord 3.15, Excelsior 0.91.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Feyenoord are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Feyenoord's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Excelsior's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Feyenoord are 2nd on 25 points from 12 games; Excelsior are 15th on 11 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Feyenoord are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat away to Heerenveen.
- Excelsior have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Last 6 meetings: Feyenoord 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Feyenoord 2–1 Excelsior.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Feyenoord vs Excelsior
Has the model earned this number?
Feyenoord at 75%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Feyenoord vs Excelsior
Feyenoord
Eredivisie
- L3-5away to Heerenveen8 November 2026
- D1-1Fortuna Sittard31 October 2026
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven25 October 2026
- W4-3away to Telstar17 October 2026
- W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L0-1GO Ahead Eagles7 November 2026
- L0-9Twente1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Fortuna Sittard25 October 2026
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
What these results say
- Feyenoord scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Feyenoord conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Feyenoord.
- Excelsior did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | +19 | 25 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Feyenoord
Chance to finish in the top four · 79% today
Excelsior
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs Excelsior
- 15 March 2026Feyenoord 2–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 16 August 2025Excelsior 1–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 19 May 2024Feyenoord 4–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 25 November 2023Excelsior 2–4 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 7 May 2023Excelsior 0–2 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 13 November 2022Feyenoord 5–1 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers: Feyenoord and Excelsior
Feyenoord
GoalsAssists
- A. Hadj-Moussa72
- Nacho Ferri63
- G. Zechiël54
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Feyenoord a 15.3% chance of the title and Excelsior 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Feyenoord v Excelsior has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 77% / 14% / 9% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 75% / 15% / 10%: the biggest move is Feyenoord's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Feyenoord win75%▼ −2
- Draw15%▲ +1
- Excelsior win10%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feyenoord the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.15 expected goals for Feyenoord against 0.91 for Excelsior. Feyenoord's attack/defence rating is 1.23/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.38 for Excelsior.
How the model reaches 75% for Feyenoord to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Feyenoord to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Feyenoord's ratings add 16 points and Excelsior's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 75%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Feyenoord's ratings60%+16
- Excelsior's ratings75%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Feyenoord at home · Excelsior away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FeyenoordExcelsior
Feyenoord are 2nd after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Excelsior are 15th after 12 (between 1st and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Feyenoord 12, Excelsior 12.
Excelsior score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Feyenoord have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Feyenoord
- vs FC Porto24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
- vs Ajax29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at Willem II5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 79%
- at Viking8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 32%
- at Groningen13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 50%
Excelsior
- vs Telstar28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
- at ADO Den Haag6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 26%
- at PEC Zwolle12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 31%
- vs AZ Alkmaar19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 22%
- at Sparta Rotterdam9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.