GO Ahead Eagles
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 Fortuna Sittard
The model makes it 40% GO Ahead Eagles, 26% draw, 34% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: GO Ahead Eagles 1.67, Fortuna Sittard 1.50.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. GO Ahead Eagles's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Fortuna Sittard's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- GO Ahead Eagles are 8th on 17 points from 12 games; Fortuna Sittard are 7th on 20 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- GO Ahead Eagles have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Excelsior.
- Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Telstar.
- Last 6 meetings: GO Ahead Eagles 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 January 2026, ended GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Fortuna Sittard.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: GO Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard
Has the model earned this number?
GO Ahead Eagles at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into GO Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie
- W1-0away to Excelsior7 November 2026
- L0-4away to Cambuur31 October 2026
- W3-2Telstar23 October 2026
- L1-4away to PEC Zwolle18 October 2026
- D3-3Sparta Rotterdam10 October 2026
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie
- D2-2Telstar7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Feyenoord31 October 2026
- W1-0Excelsior25 October 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen18 October 2026
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
What these results say
- GO Ahead Eagles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GO Ahead Eagles had three goals or more.
- Fortuna Sittard went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
GO Ahead Eagles
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard
- 11 January 2026GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 8 August 2025Fortuna Sittard 2–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 10 January 2025Fortuna Sittard 0–3 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 11 August 2024GO Ahead Eagles 0–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 3 May 2024Fortuna Sittard 0–0 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 22 September 2023GO Ahead Eagles 3–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: GO Ahead Eagles and Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
GoalsAssists
- S. Tengstedt92
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fortuna Sittard (seventh, with GO Ahead Eagles eighth), while our numbers lean to GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.81 in attack and 1.31 in defence, Fortuna Sittard 0.76 and 1.11 (lower is better in defence), so GO Ahead Eagles have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GO Ahead Eagles the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles against 1.50 for Fortuna Sittard. GO Ahead Eagles's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.11 for Fortuna Sittard.
How the model reaches 40% for GO Ahead Eagles to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for GO Ahead Eagles to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, GO Ahead Eagles's ratings take away 1 point and Fortuna Sittard's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- GO Ahead Eagles's ratings42%−1
- Fortuna Sittard's ratings40%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
GO Ahead Eagles at home · Fortuna Sittard away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GO Ahead EaglesFortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles are 8th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Fortuna Sittard are 7th after 12 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: GO Ahead Eagles 12, Fortuna Sittard 12.
GO Ahead Eagles score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Fortuna Sittard have let in 3 there.
Fortuna Sittard score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); GO Ahead Eagles have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
GO Ahead Eagles
- at PSV Eindhoven28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 9%
- vs Twente6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 21%
- at Heerenveen12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 21%
- vs Ajax20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 22%
- at Groningen10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 26%
Fortuna Sittard
- vs Heerenveen29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs PEC Zwolle5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 52%
- at Utrecht12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam19 Dec · Eredivisiewin 51%
- at Twente8 Jan · Eredivisiewin 15%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.