Telstar
vs
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Telstar 2–1 PEC Zwolle
The model makes it 52% Telstar, 25% draw, 23% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Telstar 1.88, PEC Zwolle 1.07.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Telstar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Telstar's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and PEC Zwolle's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Telstar are 16th on 10 points from 12 games; PEC Zwolle are 13th on 12 points from 12 games — Eredivisie.
- Telstar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Fortuna Sittard.
- PEC Zwolle are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Willem II.
- Last 4 meetings: PEC Zwolle 4 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended PEC Zwolle 4–1 Telstar.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Telstar vs PEC Zwolle
Has the model earned this number?
Telstar at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Telstar vs PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to Fortuna Sittard7 November 2026
- W4-2Utrecht1 November 2026
- L2-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 October 2026
- L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie
- D1-1away to Willem II6 November 2026
- W1-0ADO Den Haag1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Utrecht24 October 2026
- W4-1GO Ahead Eagles18 October 2026
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
What these results say
- Telstar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Telstar had three goals or more.
- PEC Zwolle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Telstar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
PEC Zwolle
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
From our Eredivisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Telstar vs PEC Zwolle
- 31 January 2026PEC Zwolle 4–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 15 August 2025Telstar 0–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 14 April 2023PEC Zwolle 2–0 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 12 August 2022Telstar 0–5 PEC ZwolleEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Telstar and PEC Zwolle
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour PEC Zwolle (13th, with Telstar 16th), while our numbers lean to Telstar. Telstar rate 0.80 in attack and 1.21 in defence, PEC Zwolle 0.59 and 1.27 (lower is better in defence), so Telstar have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Telstar the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Telstar against 1.07 for PEC Zwolle. Telstar's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.27 for PEC Zwolle.
How the model reaches 52% for Telstar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Telstar to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Telstar's ratings add 6 points and PEC Zwolle's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Telstar's ratings48%+6
- PEC Zwolle's ratings52%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Telstar at home · PEC Zwolle away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
TelstarPEC Zwolle
Telstar are 16th after 12 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 16th so far); PEC Zwolle are 13th after 12 (between 12th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Telstar 12, PEC Zwolle 12.
Telstar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); PEC Zwolle have let in 3 there.
PEC Zwolle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Telstar have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Telstar
- at Excelsior28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 41%
- vs Groningen4 Dec · Eredivisiewin 40%
- at PSV Eindhoven13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 11%
- vs Willem II18 Dec · Eredivisiewin 70%
- at ADO Den Haag10 Jan · Eredivisiewin 34%
PEC Zwolle
- vs AZ Alkmaar29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 22%
- at Fortuna Sittard5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 22%
- vs Excelsior12 Dec · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at PSV Eindhoven20 Dec · Eredivisiewin 7%
- vs Utrecht9 Jan · Eredivisiewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.