Marseille
vs
Toulouse
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Marseille 2–1 Toulouse
The model makes it 50% Marseille, 24% draw, 26% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Marseille 2.04, Toulouse 1.34.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Marseille are 14th on 6 points from 6 games; Toulouse are 9th on 9 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Marseille have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Estac Troyes.
- Toulouse are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Le Mans.
- Last 6 meetings: Marseille 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Toulouse 0–1 Marseille.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Marseille vs Toulouse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Marseille at 50% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Marseille vs Toulouse
Marseille
- W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026
- L1-2Paris Saint Germain20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
Toulouse
- W3-0away to Le Mans16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
What these results say
- Marseille failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toulouse had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Toulouse
Marseille and Toulouse have met 6 times in the records we hold, Marseille has won 3 of them to Toulouse's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Marseille won the last one 1–0 on 7 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 9 |
| Toulouse | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 7 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Toulouse 0–1 Marseille - 4 Mar 2026
Coupe de FranceMarseille 2–2 Toulouse - 29 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Marseille 2–2 Toulouse - 6 Apr 2025
Ligue 1Marseille 3–2 Toulouse - 31 Aug 2024
Ligue 1Toulouse 1–3 Marseille - 21 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Toulouse 2–2 Marseille
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Marseille and Toulouse
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri41
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
- T. Jørgensen21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Marseille carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.84 for Toulouse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for Marseille and 1.34 for Toulouse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Marseille rate 1.12 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toulouse rate 1.05 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Toulouse, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Marseille a 1.2% chance of the title and Toulouse 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Marseille against 1.34 for Toulouse. Marseille's attack/defence rating is 1.12/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.08 for Toulouse.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Marseille at home · Toulouse away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MarseilleToulouse
Marseille are 13th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Toulouse are 7th after 7 (between 7th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Marseille 6, Toulouse 7.
Marseille score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Toulouse have let in 0 there.
Toulouse score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Marseille have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Marseille
- at Bayer Leverkusen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
- at Lens8 Nov · Ligue 1win 32%
Toulouse
- vs Strasbourg6 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- at Lens21 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- vs Rennes29 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Paris Saint Germain5 Dec · Ligue 1win 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.