Paris FC
vs
Monaco
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Paris FC 2–1 Monaco
The model makes it 43% Paris FC, 27% draw, 30% Monaco — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Paris FC 1.63, Monaco 1.29.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Paris FC are 6th on 11 points from 6 games; Monaco are 3rd on 14 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Lorient.
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Toulouse.
- Last 2 meetings: Paris FC 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 April 2026, ended Paris FC 4–1 Monaco.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paris FC vs Monaco
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris FC at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paris FC vs Monaco
Paris FC
- L0-1away to Lorient10 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg19 September 2026
- D0-0Lyon12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
Monaco
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
What these results say
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Monaco
- 10 April 2026Paris FC 4–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 1 November 2025Monaco 0–1 Paris FCLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris FC and Monaco
Paris FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Sinayoko41
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Paris FC carry a model rating of 7.03 against 7.01 for Monaco. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Paris FC and 1.29 for Monaco. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paris FC rate 1.09 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monaco rate 1.22 and 0.89.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Monaco, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paris FC a 7.8% chance of the title and Monaco 17.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris FC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Paris FC against 1.29 for Monaco. Paris FC's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.89 for Monaco.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Paris FC at home · Monaco away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Paris FCMonaco
Paris FC are 4th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Monaco are 1st after 6 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Paris FC 6, Monaco 6.
Monaco score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Paris FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Paris FC
- at Auxerre7 Nov · Ligue 1win 51%
- vs Angers22 Nov · Ligue 1win 64%
- at Stade Brestois 2927 Nov · Ligue 1win 44%
Monaco
- vs FC Nordsjaelland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 63%
- at Le Mans8 Nov · Ligue 1win 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.