Regular Season - 15 · 20 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Aarhus vs Lyngby Superliga prediction

New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus

Our model says: Aarhus 2–1 Lyngby

The model makes it 57% Aarhus, 23% draw, 20% Lyngby — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Aarhus 2.24, Lyngby 1.15.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Aarhus: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 6 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Aarhus's rating is built from 46 Danish Superliga matches and Lyngby's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 470 matches.

Key facts

Aarhus are 8th on 15 points from 14 games; Lyngby are 10th on 11 points from 14 games — Superliga.
Aarhus have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to AC Horsens.
Lyngby have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Silkeborg.
Last 6 meetings: Aarhus 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Lyngby 2–2 Aarhus.

More Danish Superliga predictions

All Danish Superliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Aarhus vs Lyngby

62%

Both teams to score

66%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Aarhus win Draw Lyngby win

2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
2–26%

Scores read Aarhus first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Aarhus at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Aarhus vs Lyngby

Aarhus

Superliga

W2-0AC Horsens8 November 2026
L0-2away to Brondby1 November 2026
W2-1Viborg25 October 2026
D1-1away to FC Copenhagen18 October 2026
W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026

Lyngby

Superliga

L0-1away to Silkeborg6 November 2026
W2-1Randers FC30 October 2026
L2-3away to FC Midtjylland25 October 2026
D3-3FC Nordsjaelland18 October 2026
L2-5away to Brondby11 October 2026

What these results say

Aarhus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Lyngby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Lyngby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Lyngby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	19	21	-2	15
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	19	29	-10	11

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Aarhus

Chance to finish in the top six · 39% today

Win 46%

Draw 30%

Defeat 23%

Lyngby

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 81% today

Win 64%

Draw 79%

Defeat 86%

From our Superliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Lyngby

1 August 2026Lyngby 2–2 AarhusSuperliga
3 November 2024Aarhus 2–1 LyngbySuperliga
22 September 2024Lyngby 0–0 AarhusSuperliga
22 October 2023Lyngby 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
27 August 2023Aarhus 1–0 LyngbySuperliga
30 October 2022Lyngby 0–1 AarhusSuperliga

Leading scorers: Aarhus and Lyngby

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

J. Serra50

Lyngby

GoalsAssists

S. Colyn53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Aarhus v Lyngby has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 55% / 22% / 23% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is Lyngby's chance of winning, down 3 points.

Aarhus win57%▲ +2
Draw23%▲ +1
Lyngby win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Aarhus Lyngby

0.77 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.68

1.12 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.66

2.24 Model expected goals (this match) 1.15

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Aarhus against 1.15 for Lyngby. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.66 for Lyngby.

How the model reaches 57% for Aarhus to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Aarhus to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Aarhus's ratings add 7 points and Lyngby's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 57%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage42%+5
Both sides at this match's level41%−1
Aarhus's ratings48%+7
Lyngby's ratings57%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AarhusModelLyngby

Over 1.5 goals

100%

10 of 10 games

86%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

44%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

62%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AarhusLyngby

14Matches14

3W 6D 5LRecord2W 5D 7L

19 1.4 per gameGoals scored19 1.4 per game

21 1.5 per gameGoals conceded29 2.1 per game

2 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14

3 of 14Failed to score3 of 14

2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3

20 1.4 per gameYellow cards28 2.0 per game

0Red cards1

3-4-2-1 13×Usual shape4-4-2 5×

Aarhus at home · Lyngby away

7Played7

3W 3D 1LRecord1W 0D 6L

12–8Goals for – against9–16

2 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Superliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AarhusLyngby

Aarhus are 8th after 14 Superliga matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Lyngby are 10th after 14 (between 8th and 12th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Superliga matches this season: Aarhus 14, Lyngby 14.

Aarhus scored 313345

Lyngby conceded 234956

Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lyngby have let in 6 there.

Lyngby scored 125263

Aarhus conceded 244317

Lyngby score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Aarhus have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Aarhus

at Brann26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
at Silkeborg29 Nov · Superligawin 48%
vs Randers FC5 Dec · Superligawin 60%
vs Twente10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 26%
at Sonderjyske21 Feb · Superligawin 47%

Lyngby

vs Viborg29 Nov · Superligawin 27%
at FC Nordsjaelland6 Dec · Superligawin 18%
vs Brondby21 Feb · Superligawin 29%
at Odense28 Feb · Superligawin 27%
vs AC Horsens7 Mar · Superligawin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.