FSV Mainz 05
vs
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen
The model makes it 46% FSV Mainz 05, 25% draw, 29% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 1.93, Werder Bremen 1.43.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- FSV Mainz 05 are 8th on 7 points from 5 games; Werder Bremen are 7th on 8 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Borussia Dortmund.
- Last 6 meetings: Werder Bremen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FSV Mainz 05 at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Werder Bremen
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
- W3-2FC Augsburg19 September 2026
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
- Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Werder Bremen.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
- 15 March 2026Werder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 1 November 2025FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 31 January 2025Werder Bremen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 15 September 2024FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 3 February 2024FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 2 September 2023Werder Bremen 4–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz40
- S. Becker23
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug40
- M. Grüll24
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FSV Mainz 05 carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.77 for Werder Bremen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.43 for Werder Bremen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FSV Mainz 05 rate 1.03 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Werder Bremen rate 0.87 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Werder Bremen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.43 for Werder Bremen. FSV Mainz 05's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.02 for Werder Bremen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FSV Mainz 05 at home · Werder Bremen away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05 are 7th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 4th and 7th so far); Werder Bremen are 4th after 5 (between 4th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FSV Mainz 05 5, Werder Bremen 5.
FSV Mainz 05 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Werder Bremen have let in 3 there.
Werder Bremen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FSV Mainz 05 have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FSV Mainz 05
- at VfL Bochum27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 47%
- at SV Elversberg30 Oct · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Bayern München7 Nov · Bundesligawin 17%
- at FC Augsburg22 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Union Berlin28 Nov · Bundesligawin 55%
Werder Bremen
- at Borussia Dortmund27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 12%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim31 Oct · Bundesligawin 42%
- at VfB Stuttgart7 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Hamburger SV22 Nov · Bundesligawin 47%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.