Eintracht Frankfurt
vs
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 1. FC Köln
The model makes it 50% Eintracht Frankfurt, 24% draw, 26% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.57, 1. FC Köln 1.48.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Eintracht Frankfurt are 10th on 5 points from 4 games; 1. FC Köln are 13th on 4 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to SC Freiburg.
- 1. FC Köln are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Hamburger SV.
- Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Köln 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 1. FC Köln.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
- D2-2SC Freiburg19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FSV Mainz 0512 September 2026
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
1. FC Köln
- L1-2away to Hamburger SV19 September 2026
- D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
- L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
- W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026
What these results say
- Eintracht Frankfurt scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Eintracht Frankfurt conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Eintracht Frankfurt had three goals or more.
- 1. FC Köln scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 1. FC Köln conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for 1. FC Köln.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
- 5 April 2026Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 22 November 20251. FC Köln 3–4 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 3 February 20241. FC Köln 2–0 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 3 September 2023Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 12 February 20231. FC Köln 3–0 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
- 21 August 2022Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
Leading scorers: Eintracht Frankfurt and 1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
- Y. Ebnoutalib4 goals1 assist
- J. Burkardt3 goals1 assist
1. FC Köln
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Eintracht Frankfurt carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.68 for 1. FC Köln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.57 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.48 for 1. FC Köln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eintracht Frankfurt rate 1.17 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Köln rate 0.85 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eintracht Frankfurt the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.48 for 1. FC Köln. Eintracht Frankfurt's attack/defence rating is 1.17/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.2 for 1. FC Köln.
Season stats
Eintracht Frankfurt at home · 1. FC Köln away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Eintracht Frankfurt 4, 1. FC Köln 4.
Eintracht Frankfurt score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Köln have let in 0 there.
1. FC Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Eintracht Frankfurt have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Eintracht Frankfurt
- at Borussia Dortmund24 Oct · Bundesligawin 19%
- vs Hamburger SV1 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at SC Paderborn 077 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim21 Nov · Bundesligawin 44%
1. FC Köln
- vs FC Schalke 0424 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
- at Union Berlin1 Nov · Bundesligawin 35%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen8 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- at Bayern München20 Nov · Bundesligawin 11%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.