Hamburger SV
vs
VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart
The model makes it 26% Hamburger SV, 26% draw, 48% VfB Stuttgart — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.22, VfB Stuttgart 2.07.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Hamburger SV are 16th on 3 points from 4 games; VfB Stuttgart are 15th on 3 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- Hamburger SV have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 2-1 win at home to 1. FC Köln.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 1 of their last 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Borussia Dortmund.
- Last 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SV.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfB Stuttgart at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
VfB Stuttgart
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
- L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026
What these results say
- Hamburger SV conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
- 12 April 2026VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 30 November 2025Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 5 June 2023Hamburger SV 1–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 1 June 2023VfB Stuttgart 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 26 August 2020VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
- 28 May 2020VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
VfB Stuttgart
- J. Vagnoman2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hamburger SV carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.95 for VfB Stuttgart. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Hamburger SV and 2.07 for VfB Stuttgart. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hamburger SV rate 0.70 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfB Stuttgart rate 1.15 and 0.95.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Hamburger SV against 2.07 for VfB Stuttgart. Hamburger SV's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.95 for VfB Stuttgart.
Season stats
Hamburger SV at home · VfB Stuttgart away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Hamburger SV 4, VfB Stuttgart 4.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Hamburger SV have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hamburger SV
- at SC Paderborn 0724 Oct · Bundesligawin 27%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt1 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach6 Nov · Bundesligawin 36%
- at Werder Bremen22 Nov · Bundesligawin 28%
VfB Stuttgart
- vs Atletico Madrid20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach23 Oct · Bundesligawin 53%
- at Bayer Leverkusen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.