Bayern München
vs
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Bayern München 2–1 RB Leipzig
The model makes it 56% Bayern München, 23% draw, 21% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Bayern München 2.74, RB Leipzig 1.23.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Bayern München are 2nd on 10 points from 4 games; RB Leipzig are 9th on 6 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 4 (3 won), most recently a 7-0 win at home to Union Berlin.
- RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayern München 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Bayern München 3–1 RB Leipzig.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayern München at 56% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
Bayern München
- W7-0Union Berlin18 September 2026
- W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
- W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026
RB Leipzig
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen20 September 2026
- W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Bayern München won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bayern München scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- RB Leipzig scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
- 15 August 2026Bayern München 3–1 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
- 11 February 2026Bayern München 2–0 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal
- 17 January 2026RB Leipzig 1–5 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 22 August 2025Bayern München 6–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 3 May 2025RB Leipzig 3–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 20 December 2024Bayern München 5–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayern München and RB Leipzig
Bayern München
- M. Olise4 goals1 assist
- H. Kane3 goals1 assist
RB Leipzig
- A. Nusa2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bayern München carry a model rating of 7.35 against 7.03 for RB Leipzig. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.74 goals for Bayern München and 1.23 for RB Leipzig. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayern München rate 1.76 in attack and 0.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RB Leipzig rate 1.22 and 0.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Bayern München against 1.23 for RB Leipzig. Bayern München's attack/defence rating is 1.76/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.85 for RB Leipzig.
Season stats
Bayern München at home · RB Leipzig away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Bayern München 4, RB Leipzig 4.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bayern München
- vs Arsenal21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 45%
- at SC Freiburg25 Oct · Bundesligawin 48%
- vs Borussia Dortmund31 Oct · Bundesligawin 44%
RB Leipzig
- at Real Madrid21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
- vs SV Elversberg24 Oct · Bundesligawin 47%
- at FC Schalke 0431 Oct · Bundesligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.