RB Leipzig
vs
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: RB Leipzig 2–1 SV Elversberg
The model makes it 59% RB Leipzig, 22% draw, 19% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.37, SV Elversberg 1.15.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to RB Leipzig: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- RB Leipzig are 5th on 9 points from 5 games; SV Elversberg are 9th on 7 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-0 win at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.
- SV Elversberg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Union Berlin.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 March 2014, ended RB Leipzig 2–0 SV Elversberg.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
RB Leipzig
- W6-0Eintracht Frankfurt10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen20 September 2026
- W5-0Hamburger SV13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Werder Bremen5 September 2026
- W3-0Borussia Mönchengladbach29 August 2026
SV Elversberg
- L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 0420 September 2026
- L1-2Bayern München13 September 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
What these results say
- RB Leipzig scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for RB Leipzig had three goals or more.
- SV Elversberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 9 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg
- 2 March 2014RB Leipzig 2–0 SV Elversberg3. Liga
- 7 September 2013SV Elversberg 1–0 RB Leipzig3. Liga
Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and SV Elversberg
RB Leipzig
GoalsAssists
- C. Nkunku41
- A. Nusa33
- T. Gomis22
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
RB Leipzig carry a model rating of 7.12 against 6.84 for SV Elversberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.37 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.15 for SV Elversberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Leipzig rate 1.33 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Elversberg rate 0.95 and 0.97.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.15 for SV Elversberg. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.33/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.97 for SV Elversberg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
RB Leipzig at home · SV Elversberg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
RB LeipzigSV Elversberg
RB Leipzig are 5th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); SV Elversberg are 8th after 5 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: RB Leipzig 5, SV Elversberg 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
RB Leipzig
- at Rot-Weiß Essen27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 67%
- at FC Schalke 0431 Oct · Bundesligawin 49%
- vs Manchester City4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 35%
- vs FC Augsburg7 Nov · Bundesligawin 57%
SV Elversberg
- vs SV Darmstadt 9827 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 67%
- vs FSV Mainz 0530 Oct · Bundesligawin 43%
- at Borussia Dortmund7 Nov · Bundesligawin 16%
- vs SC Freiburg21 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- at 1. FC Köln28 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.