FC Schalke 04
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC Schalke 04 1–0 FSV Mainz 05
The model makes it 35% FC Schalke 04, 31% draw, 34% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Schalke 04 1.22, FSV Mainz 05 1.20.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05 are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- FC Schalke 04 are 11th on 5 points from 4 games; FSV Mainz 05 are 6th on 7 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- FC Schalke 04 are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to SV Elversberg.
- FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 4-3 win away to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Schalke 04 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 May 2023, ended FSV Mainz 05 2–3 FC Schalke 04.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Schalke 04 at 35% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
- D0-0SV Elversberg20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Union Berlin11 September 2026
- D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026
FSV Mainz 05
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Schalke 04 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
- 5 May 2023FSV Mainz 05 2–3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 9 November 2022FC Schalke 04 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 5 March 2021FC Schalke 04 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 7 November 2020FSV Mainz 05 2–2 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 16 February 2020FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 20 September 2019FC Schalke 04 2–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Schalke 04 and FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
FSV Mainz 05
- P. Tietz4 goals
- S. Becker2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Schalke 04 carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.86 for FSV Mainz 05. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Schalke 04 rate 0.68 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FSV Mainz 05 rate 0.99 and 0.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FSV Mainz 05, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Schalke 04 the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 against 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05. FC Schalke 04's attack/defence rating is 0.68/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.98 for FSV Mainz 05.
Season stats
FC Schalke 04 at home · FSV Mainz 05 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FC Schalke 04 4, FSV Mainz 05 4.
FSV Mainz 05 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Schalke 04 have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Schalke 04
- at 1. FC Köln24 Oct · Bundesligawin 36%
- vs RB Leipzig31 Oct · Bundesligawin 29%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim8 Nov · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs VfB Stuttgart21 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
FSV Mainz 05
- vs Werder Bremen24 Oct · Bundesligawin 45%
- at SV Elversberg30 Oct · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Bayern München7 Nov · Bundesligawin 21%
- at FC Augsburg22 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.