Borussia Dortmund
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
The model makes it 68% Borussia Dortmund, 18% draw, 14% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 1.47, 5.56 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.89, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.11.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Borussia Dortmund are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 13 points from 5 games; Eintracht Frankfurt are 14th on 5 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Werder Bremen.
- Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat away to RB Leipzig.
- Last 6 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 May 2026, ended Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Dortmund at 68% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund
- D2-2Werder Bremen9 October 2026
- W1-0away to VfB Stuttgart19 September 2026
- W3-0SC Paderborn 0712 September 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim5 September 2026
- W2-0Hamburger SV29 August 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt
- L0-6away to RB Leipzig10 October 2026
- D2-2SC Freiburg19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FSV Mainz 0512 September 2026
- L1-4FC Augsburg6 September 2026
- D3-3away to Union Berlin29 August 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Dortmund went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eintracht Frankfurt conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Eintracht Frankfurt had three goals or more.
- Eintracht Frankfurt failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt have met 6 times in the records we hold, Borussia Dortmund has won 3 of them to Eintracht Frankfurt's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Borussia Dortmund won the last one 3–2 on 8 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 8 May 2026
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 3–2 Eintracht Frankfurt - 9 Jan 2026
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 3–3 Borussia Dortmund - 28 Oct 2025
DFB PokalEintracht Frankfurt 1–1 Borussia Dortmund - 17 Jan 2025
BundesligaEintracht Frankfurt 2–0 Borussia Dortmund - 24 Aug 2024
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt - 17 Mar 2024
BundesligaBorussia Dortmund 3–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.29 | 0.63 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.13 | 1.22 |
Leading scorers: Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Eintracht Frankfurt
GoalsAssists
- Y. Ebnoutalib41
- J. Burkardt31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Borussia Dortmund carry a model rating of 7.21 against 6.82 for Eintracht Frankfurt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.89 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.11 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Dortmund rate 1.29 in attack and 0.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eintracht Frankfurt rate 1.13 and 1.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund against 1.11 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Borussia Dortmund's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.22 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Borussia Dortmund at home · Eintracht Frankfurt away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
Borussia Dortmund are 1st after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Eintracht Frankfurt are 13th after 5 (between 5th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Borussia Dortmund 5, Eintracht Frankfurt 5.
Borussia Dortmund score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Eintracht Frankfurt have let in 5 there.
Eintracht Frankfurt score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Borussia Dortmund have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Dortmund
- vs Werder Bremen27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 66%
- at Bayern München31 Oct · Bundesligawin 27%
- vs Real Betis4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 54%
Eintracht Frankfurt
- at Hamburger SV27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 37%
- vs Hamburger SV1 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
- at SC Paderborn 077 Nov · Bundesligawin 42%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim21 Nov · Bundesligawin 46%
- at VfB Stuttgart28 Nov · Bundesligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.