SV Elversberg
vs
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SV Elversberg 2–1 FC Augsburg
The model makes it 43% SV Elversberg, 26% draw, 31% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: SV Elversberg 2.11, FC Augsburg 1.63.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- SV Elversberg are 7th on 7 points from 4 games; FC Augsburg are 4th on 7 points from 4 games — Bundesliga.
- SV Elversberg have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 0-0 draw away to FC Schalke 04.
- FC Augsburg have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Werder Bremen.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Elversberg at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 0420 September 2026
- L1-2Bayern München13 September 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
FC Augsburg
- L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
- D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Elversberg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SV Elversberg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SV Elversberg had three goals or more.
- FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
- FC Augsburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
- 7 August 2015SV Elversberg 1–3 FC AugsburgDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
- M. Krattenmacher3 goals
FC Augsburg
- M. Gregoritsch3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SV Elversberg carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.86 for FC Augsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for SV Elversberg and 1.63 for FC Augsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Elversberg rate 1.12 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Augsburg rate 1.04 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Augsburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Elversberg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for SV Elversberg against 1.63 for FC Augsburg. SV Elversberg's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.03 for FC Augsburg.
Season stats
SV Elversberg at home · FC Augsburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SV Elversberg 4, FC Augsburg 4.
FC Augsburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); SV Elversberg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SV Elversberg
- at RB Leipzig24 Oct · Bundesligawin 28%
- vs FSV Mainz 0530 Oct · Bundesligawin 43%
- at Borussia Dortmund7 Nov · Bundesligawin 21%
- vs SC Freiburg21 Nov · Bundesligawin 35%
FC Augsburg
- vs Union Berlin24 Oct · Bundesligawin 51%
- vs SC Freiburg31 Oct · Bundesligawin 33%
- at RB Leipzig7 Nov · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs FSV Mainz 0522 Nov · Bundesligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.