Alverca
vs
Arouca
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Alverca 2–1 Arouca
The model makes it 38% Alverca, 28% draw, 34% Arouca — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Alverca 1.46, Arouca 1.36.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Alverca are 8th on 11 points from 8 games; Arouca are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Alverca are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Famalicao.
- Arouca have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Estrela.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 April 2026, ended Alverca 2–1 Arouca.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alverca vs Arouca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alverca at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alverca vs Arouca
Alverca
- W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
Arouca
- W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Alverca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alverca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Alverca.
- Arouca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alverca
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
Arouca
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Arouca
- 24 April 2026Alverca 2–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 14 December 2025Arouca 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and Arouca
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
- D. Camara30
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alverca carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.82 for Arouca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Alverca and 1.36 for Arouca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alverca rate 0.93 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arouca rate 0.97 and 1.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arouca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alverca a 0% chance of the title and Arouca 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alverca the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Alverca against 1.36 for Arouca. Alverca's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.04 for Arouca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alverca at home · Arouca away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Alverca 8, Arouca 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Alverca
- at Benfica2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 12%
- vs Casa Pia7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 57%
- at Academico Viseu28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 29%
- vs Moreirense6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 50%
- at Vitória SC13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 37%
Arouca
- vs Nacional1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 54%
- at Famalicao6 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- vs Rio Ave28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 56%
- at SC Braga6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 24%
- at Academico Viseu13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.