FC Augsburg
vs
Union Berlin
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC Augsburg 2–1 Union Berlin
The model makes it 57% FC Augsburg, 22% draw, 21% Union Berlin — fair odds of 1.75, 4.55 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: FC Augsburg 2.31, Union Berlin 1.19.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FC Augsburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- FC Augsburg are 6th on 8 points from 5 games; Union Berlin are 16th on 4 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- FC Augsburg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Bayern München.
- Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to SV Elversberg.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Union Berlin 4–0 FC Augsburg.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Augsburg at 57% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
- D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
Union Berlin
- W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
- FC Augsburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Union Berlin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Union Berlin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union Berlin had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 8 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
FC Augsburg and Union Berlin have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Union Berlin won the last one 4–0 on 16 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Union Berlin | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 16 May 2026
BundesligaUnion Berlin 4–0 FC Augsburg - 15 Jan 2026
BundesligaFC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin - 17 May 2025
BundesligaFC Augsburg 1–2 Union Berlin - 15 Jan 2025
BundesligaUnion Berlin 0–2 FC Augsburg - 12 Apr 2024
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–0 Union Berlin - 25 Nov 2023
BundesligaUnion Berlin 1–1 FC Augsburg
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| Union Berlin | 0.78 | 1.20 |
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch30
- R. Fellhauer30
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Augsburg carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.64 for Union Berlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.19 for Union Berlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Augsburg rate 1.05 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Berlin rate 0.78 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Augsburg the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for FC Augsburg against 1.19 for Union Berlin. FC Augsburg's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.2 for Union Berlin.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Augsburg at home · Union Berlin away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC AugsburgUnion Berlin
FC Augsburg are 4th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Union Berlin are 15th after 5 (between 6th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FC Augsburg 5, Union Berlin 5.
FC Augsburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Union Berlin have let in 3 there.
Union Berlin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Augsburg have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Augsburg
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 75%
- vs SC Freiburg31 Oct · Bundesligawin 34%
- at RB Leipzig7 Nov · Bundesligawin 21%
- vs FSV Mainz 0522 Nov · Bundesligawin 46%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim29 Nov · Bundesligawin 39%
Union Berlin
- at 1. FC Köln27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 26%
- vs 1. FC Köln1 Nov · Bundesligawin 39%
- at SC Freiburg8 Nov · Bundesligawin 15%
- vs RB Leipzig21 Nov · Bundesligawin 18%
- at FSV Mainz 0528 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.