Regular Season - 29 · 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg Allsvenskan prediction

Nordic Wellness Arena, Gothenburg

Our model says: BK Hacken 2–1 IF Elfsborg

The model makes it 45% BK Hacken, 26% draw, 29% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: BK Hacken 1.72, IF Elfsborg 1.26.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. BK Hacken's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and IF Elfsborg's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.

Key facts

  • BK Hacken are 4th on 49 points from 28 games; IF Elfsborg are 5th on 46 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
  • BK Hacken have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to AIK Stockholm.
  • IF Elfsborg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Hammarby FF.
  • Last 6 meetings: BK Hacken 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended IF Elfsborg 0–1 BK Hacken.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg

59%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

BK Hacken win Draw IF Elfsborg win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read BK Hacken first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

BK Hacken at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg

BK Hacken

Allsvenskan

  • L2-3away to AIK Stockholm8 November 2026
  • W1-0IFK Goteborg1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to IF Brommapojkarna28 October 2026
  • W4-0Degerfors IF24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Malmo FF18 October 2026

IF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan

  • L1-4away to Hammarby FF6 November 2026
  • W2-1Orgryte IS1 November 2026
  • D2-2away to AIK Stockholm27 October 2026
  • D0-0Malmo FF23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sirius18 October 2026

What these results say

  • BK Hacken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • BK Hacken kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4BK Hacken28131055033+1749
5IF Elfsborg28121064231+1146

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

BK Hacken

Chance to finish in the top three · 10% today

Win 15%
Draw 10%
Defeat 0%

From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg

  • 2 October 2026IF Elfsborg 0–1 BK HackenFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 May 2026IF Elfsborg 1–1 BK HackenAllsvenskan
  • 3 August 2025BK Hacken 1–2 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 6 July 2025IF Elfsborg 0–2 BK HackenAllsvenskan
  • 6 December 2024IF Elfsborg 5–1 BK HackenFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 October 2024IF Elfsborg 1–3 BK HackenAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg

BK Hacken

GoalsAssists

  • G. Lindgren132
  • Julius Lindberg98
  • A. Svanbäck88

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on BK Hacken v IF Elfsborg has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is IF Elfsborg's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. BK Hacken win45%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. IF Elfsborg win29%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

BK Hacken IF Elfsborg
0.75 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
1.33 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.43
1.72 Model expected goals (this match) 1.26

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives BK Hacken the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for BK Hacken against 1.26 for IF Elfsborg. BK Hacken's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.43 for IF Elfsborg.

How the model reaches 45% for BK Hacken to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for BK Hacken to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, BK Hacken's ratings add 2 points and IF Elfsborg's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. BK Hacken's ratings43%+2
  4. IF Elfsborg's ratings45%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

BK HackenIF Elfsborg
28Matches28
13W 10D 5LRecord12W 10D 6L
50 1.8 per gameGoals scored42 1.5 per game
33 1.2 per gameGoals conceded31 1.1 per game
13 of 28Clean sheets9 of 28
4 of 28Failed to score2 of 28
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
50 1.8 per gameYellow cards39 1.4 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 21×Usual shape4-2-3-1 17×

BK Hacken at home · IF Elfsborg away

14Played14
7W 5D 2LRecord4W 6D 4L
26–18Goals for – against19–21
5 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: BK Hacken 28, IF Elfsborg 28.

BK Hacken scored 7781258
IF Elfsborg conceded 334679

BK Hacken score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); IF Elfsborg have let in 6 there.

IF Elfsborg scored 6534913
BK Hacken conceded 668475

IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); BK Hacken have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

BK Hacken

  • at Djurgardens IF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%

IF Elfsborg

  • vs Gais29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.