Regular Season - 11 · 8 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction

Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg

Our model says: 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli

The model makes it 44% 1. FC Magdeburg, 27% draw, 29% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.61, FC St. Pauli 1.20.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. 1. FC Magdeburg's rating is built from 43 2. Bundesliga matches and FC St. Pauli's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 694 matches.

Key facts

  • 1. FC Magdeburg are 5th on 16 points from 9 games; FC St. Pauli are 7th on 12 points from 9 games — 2. Bundesliga.
  • 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-1 win at home to Karlsruher SC.
  • FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to SV Darmstadt 98.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC St. Pauli 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 February 2024, ended FC Magdeburg 1–0 FC St. Pauli.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli

57%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1. FC Magdeburg win Draw FC St. Pauli win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 0–07%

Scores read 1. FC Magdeburg first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 42%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Magdeburg at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

  • W6-1Karlsruher SC24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dynamo Dresden18 October 2026
  • W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026
  • D1-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth18 September 2026
  • W3-01. FC Kaiserslautern12 September 2026

FC St. Pauli

2. Bundesliga

  • D0-0away to SV Darmstadt 9823 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Hannover 9617 October 2026
  • W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Energie Cottbus20 September 2026
  • W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Magdeburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC St. Pauli went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC St. Pauli had two goals or fewer.
  • FC St. Pauli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
51. FC Magdeburg95132012+816
7FC St. Pauli9261119+212

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli

  • 10 February 2024FC Magdeburg 1–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 27 August 2023FC St. Pauli 0–0 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 18 February 2023FC Magdeburg 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 14 August 2022FC St. Pauli 3–0 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 7 August 2021FC Magdeburg 2–3 FC St. PauliDFB Pokal
  • 22 December 2018FC St. Pauli 4–1 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski50

FC St. Pauli

GoalsAssists

  • Abdoulie Ceesay40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

1. FC Magdeburg carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.59 for FC St. Pauli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.20 for FC St. Pauli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

1. FC Magdeburg rate 0.88 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Pauli rate 0.60 and 1.06.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 5.2% chance of the title and FC St. Pauli 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Magdeburg the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.20 for FC St. Pauli. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.06 for FC St. Pauli.

How the model reaches 44% for 1. FC Magdeburg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Magdeburg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, 1. FC Magdeburg's ratings take away 13 points and FC St. Pauli's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage43%+6
  3. 1. FC Magdeburg's ratings30%−13
  4. FC St. Pauli's ratings44%+14

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

1. FC MagdeburgFC St. Pauli
9Matches9
5W 1D 3LRecord2W 6D 1L
20 2.2 per gameGoals scored11 1.2 per game
12 1.3 per gameGoals conceded9 1.0 per game
4 of 9Clean sheets3 of 9
1 of 9Failed to score1 of 9
2 of 2Penalties scored–
18 2.0 per gameYellow cards22 2.4 per game
2Red cards1
4-3-3 8×Usual shape3-4-1-2 5×

1. FC Magdeburg at home · FC St. Pauli away

5Played5
4W 0D 1LRecord0W 5D 0L
15–7Goals for – against6–6
3 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Magdeburg 9, FC St. Pauli 9.

1. FC Magdeburg scored 324532
FC St. Pauli conceded 111501

1. FC Magdeburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); FC St. Pauli have let in 5 there.

FC St. Pauli scored 013412
1. FC Magdeburg conceded 331311

FC St. Pauli score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Magdeburg have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

1. FC Magdeburg

  • at Arminia Bielefeld20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
  • vs Energie Cottbus29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 52%
  • at VfL Wolfsburg6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
  • vs 1. FC Nürnberg13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 43%

FC St. Pauli

  • vs VfL Bochum21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 45%
  • at Dynamo Dresden28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
  • vs 1. FC Heidenheim6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
  • at VfL Osnabrück13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 38%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.