Farul Constanta
vs
Rapid
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Farul Constanta 0–1 Rapid
The model makes it 30% Farul Constanta, 28% draw, 42% Rapid — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Farul Constanta 1.12, Rapid 1.44.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Rapid: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Farul Constanta's rating is built from 53 Romanian Liga I matches and Rapid's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Farul Constanta are 7th on 17 points from 12 games; Rapid are 2nd on 27 points from 12 games — Liga I.
- Farul Constanta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Universitatea Craiova.
- Rapid are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Corvinul Hunedoara.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Farul Constanta 3–1 Rapid.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Farul Constanta vs Rapid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapid at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Farul Constanta vs Rapid
Farul Constanta
Liga I
- L0-2away to Universitatea Craiova18 October 2026
- W3-1Petrolul Ploiesti11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Bucuresti20 September 2026
- W4-2Uta Arad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
Rapid
Liga I
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara17 October 2026
- W4-3away to Universitatea Cluj12 October 2026
- W3-1Arges Pitesti18 September 2026
- W2-1FC Voluntari12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Oțelul6 September 2026
What these results say
- Farul Constanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapid won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rapid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 2 | Rapid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Farul Constanta vs Rapid
- 15 February 2026Farul Constanta 3–1 RapidLiga I
- 4 October 2025Rapid 3–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 24 February 2025Farul Constanta 1–3 RapidLiga I
- 21 October 2024Rapid 5–0 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 24 April 2024Farul Constanta 3–1 RapidLiga I
- 15 March 2024Rapid 1–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I
Leading scorers: Farul Constanta and Rapid
Farul Constanta
GoalsAssists
- E. Rădăslăvescu53
- M. Ahlinvi41
Rapid
GoalsAssists
- A. Dobre50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Farul Constanta carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.65 for Rapid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Farul Constanta and 1.44 for Rapid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Farul Constanta rate 0.63 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid rate 0.79 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Farul Constanta a 0% chance of the title and Rapid 20.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Farul Constanta against 1.44 for Rapid. Farul Constanta's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.19 for Rapid.
How the model reaches 42% for Rapid to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Rapid to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Farul Constanta's ratings add 24 points and Rapid's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage29%−6
- Farul Constanta's ratings53%+24
- Rapid's ratings42%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Farul Constanta at home · Rapid away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Farul ConstantaRapid
Farul Constanta are 7th after 12 Liga I matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Rapid are 2nd after 12 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Farul Constanta 12, Rapid 12.
Farul Constanta score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Rapid have let in 1 there.
Rapid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Farul Constanta have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Farul Constanta
- vs Universitatea Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 35%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara28 Nov · Liga Iwin 31%
- vs FCSB5 Dec · Liga Iwin 40%
Rapid
- at Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe21 Nov · Liga Iwin 45%
- vs FC Botosani28 Nov · Liga Iwin 59%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj5 Dec · Liga Iwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.