FC Winterthur
vs
Étoile Carouge
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: FC Winterthur 2–0 Étoile Carouge
The model makes it 60% FC Winterthur, 24% draw, 16% Étoile Carouge — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Winterthur 1.94, Étoile Carouge 0.74.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Winterthur are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Winterthur's rating is built from 11 Challenge League matches and Étoile Carouge's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Winterthur are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games; Étoile Carouge are 9th on 9 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- FC Winterthur have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Stade Nyonnais.
- Étoile Carouge have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Yverdon Sport.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 September 2026, ended Étoile Carouge 0–1 FC Winterthur.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Winterthur at 60% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge
FC Winterthur
Challenge League
- W4-0Stade Nyonnais23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Étoile Carouge11 September 2026
- W4-0Neuchatel Xamax FC4 September 2026
Étoile Carouge
Challenge League
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
- L0-1FC Winterthur11 September 2026
- D1-1FC WIL 19004 September 2026
- L0-3away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Winterthur won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Winterthur scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Winterthur had three goals or more.
- Étoile Carouge did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Winterthur vs Étoile Carouge
- 11 September 2026Étoile Carouge 0–1 FC WinterthurChallenge League
- 18 September 2021Étoile Carouge 3–1 FC WinterthurSchweizer Cup
The two sides
FC Winterthur carry a model rating of 6.3 against 5.98 for Étoile Carouge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for FC Winterthur and 0.74 for Étoile Carouge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Winterthur rate 0.57 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Étoile Carouge rate 0.36 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Winterthur a 13.4% chance of the title and Étoile Carouge 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Winterthur the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for FC Winterthur against 0.74 for Étoile Carouge. FC Winterthur's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.09 for Étoile Carouge.
How the model reaches 60% for FC Winterthur to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Winterthur to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Winterthur's ratings take away 26 points and Étoile Carouge's ratings add 42 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Winterthur's ratings18%−26
- Étoile Carouge's ratings60%+42
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Winterthur at home · Étoile Carouge away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: FC Winterthur 11, Étoile Carouge 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Winterthur
- at Yverdon Sport20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
- vs Rapperswil27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 60%
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
- vs SC Kriens12 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 50%
Étoile Carouge
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 23%
- vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
- at FC WIL 19005 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.