Zemun
vs
IMT Novi Beograd
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Zemun 0–1 IMT Novi Beograd
The model makes it 20% Zemun, 29% draw, 51% IMT Novi Beograd — fair odds of 5.00, 3.45 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Zemun 0.72, IMT Novi Beograd 1.44.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: IMT Novi Beograd are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Zemun's rating is built from 13 Serbian SuperLiga matches and IMT Novi Beograd's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 682 matches.
Key facts
- Zemun are bottom on 6 points from 13 games; IMT Novi Beograd are 4th on 21 points from 13 games — Super Liga.
- Zemun have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Macva.
- IMT Novi Beograd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Železničar Pančevo.
- Last 3 meetings: IMT Novi Beograd 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended IMT Novi Beograd 4–0 Zemun.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts IMT Novi Beograd at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd
Zemun
Super Liga
- W1-0Macva23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Cukaricki17 October 2026
- L0-3Železničar Pančevo11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Novi Pazar19 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Surdulica14 September 2026
IMT Novi Beograd
Super Liga
- L0-1Železničar Pančevo23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Novi Pazar18 October 2026
- W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vojvodina19 September 2026
- L0-1FK Crvena Zvezda13 September 2026
What these results say
- Zemun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zemun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- IMT Novi Beograd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for IMT Novi Beograd had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Zemun | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd
- 25 July 2026IMT Novi Beograd 4–0 ZemunSuper Liga
- 7 April 2021IMT Novi Beograd 2–0 ZemunPrva Liga
- 2 October 2020Zemun 0–0 IMT Novi BeogradPrva Liga
Leading scorers: Zemun and IMT Novi Beograd
Zemun
No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
IMT Novi Beograd
GoalsAssists
- C. Keita32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zemun carry a model rating of 5.92 against 6.4 for IMT Novi Beograd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.72 goals for Zemun and 1.44 for IMT Novi Beograd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zemun rate 0.35 in attack and 2.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.49 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Zemun against 1.44 for IMT Novi Beograd. Zemun's attack/defence rating is 0.35/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.28 for IMT Novi Beograd.
How the model reaches 51% for IMT Novi Beograd to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for IMT Novi Beograd to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Zemun's ratings add 48 points and IMT Novi Beograd's ratings take away 28 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Zemun's ratings79%+48
- IMT Novi Beograd's ratings51%−28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zemun at home · IMT Novi Beograd away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Zemun 13, IMT Novi Beograd 13.
Zemun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); IMT Novi Beograd have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zemun
- at Radnicki NIS21 Nov · Super Ligawin 23%
- vs Radnicki 192328 Nov · Super Ligawin 21%
- at Mladost Lucani6 Dec · Super Ligawin 22%
- vs OFK Beograd6 Feb · Super Ligawin 26%
IMT Novi Beograd
- vs FK Partizan21 Nov · Super Ligawin 41%
- vs Macva28 Nov · Super Ligawin 54%
- at Radnicki NIS6 Dec · Super Ligawin 43%
- vs Radnicki 19236 Feb · Super Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.