Grasshoppers
vs
Lausanne
Super League prediction
Our model says: Grasshoppers 1–0 Lausanne
The model makes it 41% Grasshoppers, 29% draw, 30% Lausanne — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Grasshoppers 1.39, Lausanne 1.12.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Grasshoppers's rating is built from 50 Swiss Super League matches and Lausanne's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 520 matches.
Key facts
- Grasshoppers are 11th on 8 points from 10 games; Lausanne are bottom on 6 points from 10 games — Super League.
- Grasshoppers are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to BSC Young Boys.
- Lausanne have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC St. Gallen.
- Last 6 meetings: Grasshoppers 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Lausanne 1–1 Grasshoppers.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Grasshoppers vs Lausanne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grasshoppers at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Grasshoppers vs Lausanne
Grasshoppers
Super League
- L0-2BSC Young Boys11 October 2026
- L1-5away to FC Luzern19 September 2026
- L2-5FC Sion15 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Thun12 September 2026
- D2-2FC Zurich5 September 2026
Lausanne
Super League
- L0-1away to FC St. Gallen11 October 2026
- L0-4FC Lugano20 September 2026
- L0-1Servette FC13 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Vaduz5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Thun2 September 2026
What these results say
- Grasshoppers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grasshoppers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grasshoppers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lausanne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Lausanne failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lausanne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grasshoppers vs Lausanne
- 25 July 2026Lausanne 1–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 16 May 2026Lausanne 1–3 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 8 March 2026Grasshoppers 2–3 LausanneSuper League
- 24 January 2026Lausanne 1–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 14 September 2025Grasshoppers 3–1 LausanneSuper League
- 22 February 2025Lausanne 2–2 GrasshoppersSuper League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Grasshoppers carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.26 for Lausanne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Grasshoppers and 1.12 for Lausanne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grasshoppers rate 0.51 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lausanne rate 0.42 and 1.46.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grasshoppers the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Grasshoppers against 1.12 for Lausanne. Grasshoppers's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.46 for Lausanne.
How the model reaches 41% for Grasshoppers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Grasshoppers to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Grasshoppers's ratings take away 31 points and Lausanne's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage44%+6
- Grasshoppers's ratings13%−31
- Lausanne's ratings41%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Grasshoppers at home · Lausanne away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GrasshoppersLausanne
Grasshoppers are 11th after 10 Super League matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Lausanne are 12th after 10 (between 1st and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Grasshoppers 10, Lausanne 10.
Grasshoppers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Lausanne have let in 1 there.
Lausanne score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Grasshoppers have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Grasshoppers
- at FC Lugano21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 7%
- vs FC Basel 189328 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
- at FC St. Gallen6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 18%
Lausanne
- vs FC Vaduz22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 27%
- at Servette FC28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 18%
- vs FC Sion6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.