FC Viktoria Köln
vs
FC Saarbrücken
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 FC Saarbrücken
The model makes it 51% FC Viktoria Köln, 25% draw, 24% FC Saarbrücken — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Viktoria Köln 1.96, FC Saarbrücken 1.16.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. FC Viktoria Köln's rating is built from 48 3. Liga matches and FC Saarbrücken's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Viktoria Köln are 2nd on 20 points from 10 games; FC Saarbrücken are 4th on 17 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Viktoria Köln are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to MSV Duisburg.
- FC Saarbrücken have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Saarbrücken 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended FC Viktoria Köln 2–0 FC Saarbrücken.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Viktoria Köln at 51% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
FC Viktoria Köln
3. Liga
- D1-1away to MSV Duisburg18 October 2026
- D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026
- W5-2away to Alemannia Aachen11 October 2026
- W3-0FC Ingolstadt 0419 September 2026
- W3-1away to SV Meppen15 September 2026
FC Saarbrücken
3. Liga
- W3-1away to Fortuna Düsseldorf17 October 2026
- L2-4MSV Duisburg13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Fortuna Köln10 October 2026
- W2-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster16 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Viktoria Köln went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Viktoria Köln scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Viktoria Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Saarbrücken had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken
- 23 January 2026FC Viktoria Köln 2–0 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 9 August 2025FC Saarbrücken 2–1 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
- 28 February 2025FC Viktoria Köln 1–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 25 September 2024FC Saarbrücken 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
- 21 February 2024FC Viktoria Köln 2–5 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 19 August 2023FC Saarbrücken 1–2 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
Leading scorers: FC Viktoria Köln and FC Saarbrücken
FC Viktoria Köln
GoalsAssists
- N. Castelle21
- L. Wolf20
FC Saarbrücken
GoalsAssists
- K. Brünker21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Viktoria Köln carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.28 for FC Saarbrücken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.16 for FC Saarbrücken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Viktoria Köln rate 0.64 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Saarbrücken rate 0.60 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Viktoria Köln a 21.2% chance of the title and FC Saarbrücken 3.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Viktoria Köln the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln against 1.16 for FC Saarbrücken. FC Viktoria Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.88 for FC Saarbrücken.
How the model reaches 51% for FC Viktoria Köln to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Viktoria Köln to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Viktoria Köln's ratings take away 23 points and FC Saarbrücken's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Viktoria Köln's ratings21%−23
- FC Saarbrücken's ratings51%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Viktoria Köln at home · FC Saarbrücken away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Viktoria Köln 10, FC Saarbrücken 10.
FC Viktoria Köln score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); FC Saarbrücken have let in 2 there.
FC Saarbrücken score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); FC Viktoria Köln have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Viktoria Köln
- at Havelse20 Nov · 3. Ligawin 50%
- vs Fortuna Köln29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at Würzburger Kickers5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 41%
FC Saarbrücken
- vs SV Wehen22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 47%
- vs Alemannia Aachen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
- at Hoffenheim II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.