AVS
vs
Vizela
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: AVS 1–0 Vizela
The model makes it 47% AVS, 28% draw, 25% Vizela — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AVS 1.54, Vizela 0.99.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. AVS's rating is built from 7 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Vizela's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AVS are 12th on 9 points from 7 games; Vizela are 8th on 11 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- AVS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Penafiel.
- Vizela have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Sporting CP B.
- Last 3 meetings: AVS 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 June 2025, ended Vizela 2–2 AVS.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AVS vs Vizela
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AVS at 47% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AVS vs Vizela
AVS
Segunda Liga
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026
- W2-0Feirense30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chaves23 August 2026
Vizela
Segunda Liga
- L0-2Sporting CP B10 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026
- W1-0Felgueiras 19326 September 2026
- W3-0away to Torreense29 August 2026
- D0-0Amarante22 August 2026
What these results say
- AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AVS vs Vizela
- 1 June 2025Vizela 2–2 AVSPrimeira Liga
- 24 May 2025AVS 3–0 VizelaPrimeira Liga
- 28 July 2023AVS 1–0 VizelaTaça da Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AVS carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.38 for Vizela. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for AVS and 0.99 for Vizela. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AVS rate 0.64 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vizela rate 0.57 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vizela, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AVS a 2.3% chance of the title and Vizela 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AVS the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for AVS against 0.99 for Vizela. AVS's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.48 for Vizela.
How the model reaches 47% for AVS to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AVS to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AVS's ratings take away 20 points and Vizela's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- AVS's ratings24%−20
- Vizela's ratings47%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AVS at home · Vizela away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: AVS 7, Vizela 7.
AVS score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Vizela have let in 1 there.
Vizela score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); AVS have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AVS
- at Benfica B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Leixoes29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 46%
- at Amarante6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 37%
Vizela
- vs Feirense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 50%
- at Lusitânia Lourosa28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
- vs Farense6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.